SPX, Interest Rates, Gold, Dollar and Crude Oil

By: Ian Thijm | Mon, Jul 8, 2013
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S&P500 Index Weekly Chart
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The weekly SPX touched long term (red) channel resistance at the 5/22/13 All time High

The rallies since the 3/6/09 Low has been 44-50 weeks long, the most recent one was 50 weeks long from the 6/4/12L to the 5/22/13H. We rallied right into double channel & Down trend line resistance, suggesting a pullback is due. A break above this resistance is bullish short term. The 10/4/11L-6/4/12L (cyan) Up channel support is at 1500-25 SPX in the coming weeks and should be important support in any market decline in the coming weeks. A solid decline and close below 1500 SPX is very bearish.

30-Year T-Bond Index Weekly Chart
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The weekly Bond markets Interest Rates made a regular long term 93 week cycle major Low (and Bond High) at the 7/25/12 Low at 24.52, piercing below the double bottom at 25.10-25.19 and have rallied ever since. The next 93 wk cycle is due in April 2014.

We rallied to the 7/5 High of the week at 36.77, which is bullish for IR and bearish for Bonds.

30-Year T-Bond Index Weekly Chart 2
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We are rallying into the 508 TD Bond Cycle due around July 8 2013, close to the 7/12 Time CIT (change in Trend) suggesting a short term High is due.

Daily Time CITs: 7/12, 7/22, 8/27, 10/4, 10/21

Gold Chart
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The Gold Index Daily closed lower last week at 93.50 and remains in the steep bear market. This market should retest 67.42 the 10/08 Lows. The break down in Gold stocks was 1st confirmed when we took out the 5/16/12L at 164.72.

Medium Term Gold Index CITs: 9/12, 11/19

Gold Chart 2
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The Gold weekly chart closed sharply lower last week at 1212.70 and has retraced about 55% of the 11/08L-911H. It made an 4/18/13 major Low at 1360.60. The trend was confirmed Lower, when we closed below Long term Make or Break (MOB) support, the June 2005 and Nov 2008 Up trend Line, this will become resistance at 1418. The 618% retrace support is at 1153.50. There is a 162 week Cycle due 9/6/13 week.

There is a 124 week Cycle due 11/15/13 week. Gold weekly CIT: 10/18/13 week

Dollar Daily Index

There is normally an Inverse relationship between the stock markets and the US Dollar. If the dollar sees a strong rally, the stock market declines and vice versa.

US Dollar Index Chart
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The Dollar 220 TD (Green) Cycle was the 6/13/13 Low It closed higher last week at 84.71, after making a 6/13 Low, closing above the double Top on 5/23/13H at 84.59, with the 7/24/12H at 84.16, which is bullish.

US Dollar Index Chart 2
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The Long term monthly dollar chart has been in a large sideways triangle since the Dec 2005 Highs and has resistance at 86.50. Monthly CITs: August & November 2013.

US Dollar Index Chart 3
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The weekly Crude Oil is bullish as it closed near its highs last week at 103.22, right on the larger long term Triangle since the 5/2/11 Highs, just over 2 years now, with resistance at 103.00 and support at 84.37. Whichever way it breaks will determine the next major direction. There is a 153 week cycle due August 9 2013. There is a long term 61 month cycle of Lows due in March 2014 Lows.

 


 

Ian Thijm

Author: Ian Thijm

Ian Thijm BSc, MBA
Raj Times and Cycles

My first experience with the Stock-markets was during my MBA in August 1987, right before the 87 crash. Needless to say I fell in love with the markets and studied everything I could on Timing and Cycles in the Markets, including Gann, Bayer, Baumring, Astrology, Geometry, etc. Although I loved the markets, the markets didn't love me the 1st 7 years. Then I found a unique "Ezekiel Wheel" (Symmetry Point Cycle) based on the works of James Brock and in October 1994, I turned $5000 into over $112,000 in one month. I thought I had found the Golden Key to unlock all the market profits, but the markets again humbled me. I spent the next 7 years studying and researching various unique Time and Cycle methods. Then in June 2000, I met my Partner and I became a full time Investment Manager. Life, like Markets goes through Cycles and the next 7 years, I had the most valuable, enriching lessons in my life with Markets, People and managing Money. It was very enlightening. This brings us to the present day, where I feel the need to share and teach what I have learned and that is what this blog and website is all about. I hope it is worthwhile to you.

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