Technical Pattern Watch

By: Gordon Long | Tue, Oct 29, 2013
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Last week we laid out the Technical Concerns in the EU. In our just released GMTP we point out our potential concerns with the CEE (Central & Eastern Europe) as part of discussion on the ECHO BOOM.

Country Net International Investment Position and Account Balance

This week we would like to share with you below the key Driver$/ Trigger$/ Bia$ we are presently watching as part of our MATA and Daily TRIGGERS charting services.

Key Dates To Watch


Charts We Are Watching

Market Reversal Nears (if only Temporary before the Santa Claus Rally)

THE FOLLOWING CHART IS A MULTI-DECADE MONTHLY BAR CHART: Note the Historic RSI Levels

S&P500 Monthly Chart

A FIVE YEAR TREND CHANNEL MARKETS OVERHEAD RESISTANCE - Notice the Degree of Divergence.

NOTICE THE STRONG DIVERGENCE WITH RSI

5-Year Channel Chart

NEARING UPPER CHANNEL - A Smaller Degree Look at the Same Channel

S&P500 Daily Chart

AT THE UPPER BOUNDARY CONDITION BANDS ESTABLISHED DURING THE 2007-2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: Needs to Retest 100/200 DMA for Support

2007-2008 Boundary Conditions

PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE EU STOXX 600 FOR CLUES

Fibonacci Time Extension

WE DREW THE BIA$ IN EARLIER IN OCTOBER (First Chart). Second Chart approximates our red line anticipation.

APPROACHING TRIGGER$ ZONE "C"


US Treasuries Yields

Due for a Bounce

Near Term Bonds are due for a Correction: Aligns with TRIGGER$ZONE "C"

Since mid-October the US$ has been under siege. However, As BofAML's MacNeill Curry notes, that decline is showing signs of exhaustion from which a base and correction higher is likely. Curry's "basing" view is further supported by the US Treasury market, where yields (particularly 5yrs and 10yrs) are poised to bottom and turn higher over the coming sessions...

US Treasury yields set to base

US 10yr yields have reached "Massive" resistance. Specifically, the 2.474%/2.399% zone has been a long standing pivot which has repeatedly repelled. With momentum (14d RSI) at its most overbought since May, odds favor a medium term bearish turn in trend towards the mid-Oct highs at 2.759%.

10-Year US Treasury Yield Chart

Source: BofAML

THE US$ is Bouncing Off 17 Month Lows as the Euro Begins Weakening

US Dollar Index Chart

A strengthening US$ is not normally good for US Equities, especially after such a move on US$ weakness.

 


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Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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