• 1,139 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,139 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,141 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,541 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,546 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,548 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,551 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,551 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,552 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,554 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,554 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,558 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,558 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,559 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,561 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,562 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,565 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,566 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,566 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,568 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Rydex Market Timers: Update!

The Rydex market timers continue to serve as a good short term contrarian gauge to market action.

It is late at night and I will be brief.

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the ratio of the Rydex leveraged and bullish assets to the leveraged and bearish assets in the lower panel. Prior today's drubbing, this ratio was greater than 2 - which is our level extreme bullishness - for 5 out of the last 6 trading days. After today, the bulls have back off such that the ratio now stands at 1.78. Prior extremes in this rally are noted with maroon colored bars.

Figure 1. S&P500/ daily/ leveraged bulls v. leveraged bears

I know this stuff is just bullshit and "this time is different", but I am having a hard time seeing that right now!!

Figure 2. is the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund. Yesterday's value was the lowest since the rally began in March, 2009. This I find unbelievable, but hey, it is what it is! After today, the value remains low but it has broken it's down trend channel.

Figure 2. S&P500/ daily/ money market funds

On a longer term time frame, the Rydex data continues to support the notion that the market will remain under pressure. Shorter term is indeterminate although the recent bullish extremes (i.e., bear signal) have been relieved.

Lastly, a comment about the assets in the Rydex gold fund. After Wednesday's price action, the amount of assets in this fund continued to hover around $300 million. Surprisingly, the amount of assets in this fund has not really changed since gold peaked about 6 weeks ago. After today (Thursday), the amount of assets in the gold fund is down by over 40% from yesterday. While difficult to use as a timing tool, I believe this data supports the notion that investors continue to buy at the highs and sell at the lows!

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment