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Steve Bauer

Steve Bauer

Steve owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

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Investing Wisely -- Update with Recommendations and Personalized Follow-Up -- April 18, 2010

On April 8th I offered 5 Recommendations.

I expect that it will be the same old routine -- 3 - 6 weeks into taking positions we begin to have clear perspective of how we are doing. So, like it says below -- be Disciplined and Patient.

Please read on, but for this contribution . . .


I expect to offer about 5 more Short-Sale Recommendations and about the same amount Long positions in (Inverse) ETFs in the coming couple weeks.

Note: It should be understood that there is a high likely-hood that other Sectors and Industry Groups will - Rotate - into favor for taking positions in the days following my Recommendations. In fairness to my Clients - I will not be offering Recommendation for all those additional Securities for this anticipated -- General Market Pull-back.

Please - SCROLL DOWN to my -- Current Market Commentary -- and perhaps skip the following narrative.


For me, Investing Wisely simple boils down to two questions - What and When?

With the incredible quantity of chatter available on the Internet and with thousands of investments being touted as - worthy of your investment money - what is a serious Investor to do in times like this and beyond?

Clearly - Investment risk must be assessed carefully, therefore to take a long or a short position needs more than just good fundamentals or technical analysis that seems to make sense.

I read an enormous amount of material each day, most of which is good, however it is rare to find even a single specific recommendation or even generic recommendation such as gold, energy or technology, etc. Excellent Analytics and Specific and Timely investment decisions are what makes you money, and I believe loading one's head with tons of details deters from that goal. Further, when I do find a recommendation or two, in my reading, there has never been an offer to tell me and others when to close out the recommended transaction without a fee - or something similar!

* Stock Brokers want to sell you something but never call and say - it's time to sell. Hum!

* Mutual Funds keep you invested - rain or shine and love charging their annual fees, which are much higher than advertised. They say - "read the prospectus." Hum!

For over 50+ years I have continued to develop and sharpen my skills of -- Sector, Industry Group, Commodity, Company and ETF -- Rotation.

My Rotation is simply - Cycle Analytics and with this tool it is rather easy identifying the specific Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities and their ( Component Companies and ETFs ) that are in favor. And as a result from these studies / analytics, we also (by default) learn - what securities ( Companies and ETFs ) are not in favor. That's equally Important!

With all the advice that is offered, over these many years, I find it difficult to cross-reference that constant flow of advice and opinions with anything tangible that says - this is a solid reason to own a given / specific security.

So, over the coming months, I would like to share some specific Bull Market recommendations as well as Bear Market recommendations, But, you should know that I believe, for you to make this work profitably for the long term, you must personally have / possess two very precious attributes.

Patience and Discipline.

In sharing this incredible Methodology of knowing whether the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs - are worthy of your investment money - I have found that - all you need to know is -- if they (Securities) are - Going-To or Coming-From. This is what securities "Rotation" is all about. So, for example, from a Research / Analytics point of view - it's all about being able to identify - What (which ones) and When (time and date) they (specific securities) change from Going-To to Coming From. That's how I go about identifying - Tops and being sure that - the Inflection Point - is accurate for that specific security at that specific time. (It's just the opposite for identifying - Bottoms).

Understand that, I believe, each security has it's own signature and it's rate and time table of change is different from most all other securities. And, each security often changes their signature just to snafu both you and the Analyst. That's why you, quite likely do not enjoy a high percentage of profitable transactions. This is to say - all the Companies / ETFs in a Sector or even an Industry Group do not move in unison (Wall Street and Mutual Funds want you to believe they do!), month after month and year after year. However there are those (a few) that do, allow you to clearly read their signature, and they can be readily identified long before decision day to invest.

Inflection Points - both Bull and Bear, within the General Market, only occur, on average, 3 - 5 times per year. When they occur, we often have a great deal of lead time for preparation and very little time to respond or implement. At these critical Inflection Points you simple do not have the time to dink around looking at your investment tools, or reading what Harry or Sam think, as a luxury or a form of procrastination. Harry / Sam, and their peers have screwed up more opportunities for profitable investing than you can imagine. This is true on the Buying / Shorting side and also true on the Selling / Covering side.

My Methodology for Wise Investing, has preformed brilliantly for me, for many years and is anything but a "Trading" approach. It's repeatability is very consistent and accurate but does not occur on yours' or my time clock.

So, I invite your to take the time to follow along and you will be both amazed and profitable pleased.

From time to time and with the cooperation of Safe Haven, I will publish this (same) article with specific recommendations and/or commentary. If I have nothing to recommend, which is often - I will provide an Update about every two weeks.


Current Market Commentary: for April 18th:

I'm a Bear waiting to position the balance of my CASH . . .

The past 7 weeks have had fractional gains and the Sectors and Industry Groups I follow closely are deteriorating rather rapidly.

My current most negative Sectors are: Utilities, Energy, Health Care, Real Estate and perhaps Emerging Markets. Do not take position yet!


The General Market is clearly "setting up" for a strong blow to the downside. It is taking longer that I might order, but this usually means -- it's going to be very rough on both -- Buy and Hold & Mutual Fund Investors.

In sharing my work, I often tend to use generic phrases in my attempt to describe what is and what I believe is going on -- within the General Market and am now including my Analytics for some - 13 Sectors.

I often say things like: "Strong Blow to the Downside" -- "Topping Action" -- "Breaking Down" -- etc.

To be formal it should be: a Distribution Phase when the Market is nearing a Top (Inflection Point) - and - an Accumulation Phase when the Market is nearing a Bottom (Inflection Point).

For over 40 years I have been quite accurate in the identification of both Distribution Phase - Inflection Points and the Accumulation Phase - Inflection Points. This time is no exception.


If you would like the Sale / Cover side to my specific Recommendations, Information about my Work, or of me personally - just send me an Email and I will respond promptly.

If you would like a personalized response supporting my work, recommendations or commentary, again, just ask.

However, please understand that it is important to me to know a bit about you -- so, I will ask you for just a bit of personal information and investment background.

Just click on my name for my Email Address.

Thank you for your interest in my work.

 

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