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Is That A Head And Shoulders Top I See?

Is that a head and shoulders top I see on the S&P500?

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the S&P500. Prices have probed the support zone between 1066 and 1072, and so far we have yet to close on a weekly basis below this "key" support level. From a point of having market participants express grave concern that the world is coming to an end, it would certainly be nice to have prices close below these levels. It's bad enough that prices are already below the 40 week moving average on the S&P500. (For the record, the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 are above the 40 week moving average - thank god for that too!).

Figure 1. S&P500/ weekly
Possible H&S Top in S&P500

In any case, "they" - and whoever "they" is - just won't let the market fall apart. So I guess we go higher, but from this perspective, going higher without having the "decks all cleared" of market participants first will likely lead to more bouts of abrupt selling in the future.

So we go higher to make what appears to be the right shoulder of a head and shoulders topping pattern. What happens after that is pure speculation. What I would like to see happen is 1) a break below the neck line of that head and shoulders top; 2) a "puke" by the bulls; 3) CNBC calling the correction a bear market. Then we can make a better bottom.

All this will take time and play out through the summer and likely come to fruition in the fall. By that time, everyone and their brother will know about the head and shoulders top.


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