• 485 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 486 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 487 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 887 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 892 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 894 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 897 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 897 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 898 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 900 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 900 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 904 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 904 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 905 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 907 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 908 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 911 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 912 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 912 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 914 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Ending Diagonal Dead Ahead

We appear to have a 'rolling top' with broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is often seen near major tops. The Friday 01-28-11 sell-off is the initiation of a short term correction and consolidation before we put in a final new high as part of this final topping formation and long term right shoulder construction pattern.

The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that will end with a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force by the spring of 2011.

Highlight examples of weakening analytics and warning signals are as follows:

  • Dow Theory non-confirmation between the Dow Industrials and the Trannies
  • Inter-market Divergence with new highs in the Blue Chip DOW Industrials with lower closes in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and Trannies
  • Extreme Bullish Sentiment indicators
  • VIX Sell Signal
  • Confirmed Hindenberg Omen from December
  • Weakening Breadth - 10 DMA A/D Line versus NYSE, NDX and Russell 2000 price.
  • Rising Termination Wedge pattern in the Industrials and S&P 500 since the July 2010 lows.

CURRENT MACRO EXPECTATIONS

OUR CURRENT MACRO EXPECTATIONS FOR FINANCIAL EQUITY MARKETS
The following schematic best represents the US S&P 500 Stock Index

Risk

SIMPLE GANN ANALYSIS


Larger Image

ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT


Larger Image

CHANNELS ANALYSIS


Larger Image

S&P 500 TARGETS

Near Term Support

We see the near term support to be approximately 1230 on the S&P 500. There is a possibility the sell off may gain momentum and find support at the lower end of the band (see bottom chart) at 1169 but we are skeptical of this because it is unsupported by Gann Analysis.

Intermediate Term Top

Our target for an Intermediate top is 1341 on the S&P 500.

Time Frame

We presently see this Bear Market counter rally which started in March 2009 ending 2011.45.

This approximates June 13th, 2011


Larger Image

 


Signup for this FREE Monthly Analysis

E-mail: lcmgroupe@comcast.net

Type in the Subject Line: TA Newsletter

Download the complete 39 Page February edition at: February 2011 Market Analytics

I encourage readers to look through the COMMENTARY page of Tipping Points for articles you may have missed. I also encourage you to try our new page for real time TIPPING POINTSnews. We continue to make improvements to the page based on reader feedback

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment