• 657 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 658 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 659 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,059 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,064 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,066 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,069 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,069 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,070 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,072 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,072 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,076 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,076 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,077 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,079 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,080 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,083 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,084 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,084 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,086 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The Bullish Case for Equities

Our indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury has not been in the extreme zone for 8 weeks now , and within the context of a trend following strategy that I have detailed here, here, and here, the SP500 should have a positive bias. In essence, with prices on the SP500 above its 40 week moving average and our indicator not in the extreme zone, prices should move higher. The trend remains up and inflation pressuresare neutral. This is the bullish case for equities.

But let's me be clear about one thing: the gains that equities might enjoy are unlikely to be as great or as accelerated as if the market is coming off a bottom. With rising bullish sentiment and less money on the sidelines, stocks just won't have that "uumph". Gains are possible but not at the rates that are seen at market bottoms.

The indicator constructed from the trends in the CRB Index, gold, and yields on the 10 year Treasury is shown in the middle of a weekly chart of the SP500 in figure 1. I last discussed this strategy (click here) 8 weeks ago in the context of "buying the dip".

Figure 1. SP500/ weekly
SP500/ weekly

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment