"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

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Dollar Index: Hanging in There

The Dollar Index is making a stand but that is about the most constructive I can get.

Figure1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index. The close over the positive divergence bar (price bar inside yellow oval) has at least temporarily thwarted the Dollar's down trend. The Dollar did reverse at resistance (key pivot level 76.28) and it is now sitting just above support at 73.61. A close below support and the lows of the positive divergence bar would see the Dollar's down trend resume. A close above 76.28 means a new uptrend.

Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly
Dollar Weekly Index

The technical setup seems pretty straightforward. The bigger question is why the Dollar is NOT acting as a safe haven during times of market duress. The equity markets are clearly under stress and if recent patterns hold true, this should be a positive for the Dollar. But it hasn't. We could surmise why this is so, but I would venture to guess that investors are losing faith in the good old US of A as our structural problems - economic and political - will not be fixed without some sort of crisis occurring first. The policy of "kicking the can down the road" remains the policy of choice in Washington.

In summary, the Dollar Index is hanging in there, but why it isn't doing better is the bigger question.


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