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The State of the Trend

For readers of my State of the Trend series, and those who study market trends, the 140 point SP500 drop last week should come as no surprise. And, although I'm sure the market won't follow exactly the path, slope and magnitude of previous declines, keeping history in perspective certainly helps to prepare for what the future may hold in store.

SPX

As dramatic and alarming as the above chart may seem, a look under the hood, so to speak, of the SP500, reveals an even more sobering picture:

SPX versus $ Flow

It shows diminishing support for the broad market and diminishing returns from consecutive QE's. A much hoped for QE3 may artificially change the trend of the market, but until $ Flow breaks above 2009 highs, that trend will remain highly suspicious.

 

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