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What Is SPX Fair Value

Credit and commodity markets are saying one thing while equities are saying another and only time will tell which market(s) were right. History though is clearly on the side of credit and commodities based on prior recessions including the 2008 "not so great" recession where equities peaked just two months before the NBER declared the first month of contraction.

On Friday I asked the question what is SPX fair value based on the current and future economic realities. The answer is really one of equilibrium where free markets are given the time to find a price that balances buyers and sellers. Since historically commodities and credit markets have shown to be more forward looking and have had time to find this "equilibrium" below are four charts that show where they view current SPX fair value.


30 Year Treasury Yield

SPX fair value based on historical correlations is 1,000-1,050

SPX versus 30-Year Treasury Yield


Copper Commercial Net Positions

SPX fair value based on historical correlations is 1,100-1,150.

Friday's COT report showed a massive change in commercial net positions implying copper is poised to move much lower in short order while technically copper looks very weak.

SPX versus Copper Commercial Net Position


5 Year Interest Rate Swaps

SPX fair value based on historical correlations is 700-800.

SPX versus 5-Year Interest Rate Swaps


Aaa Corporate Bond Yields

SPX fair valued based on historical correlations is 800-900.

SPX versus AAA Corporate Bond Yield

 

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