"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 21 hours Why Criminals' Cryptocurrency Choices Matter To Average Investors
  • 2 days OPEC ‘Supergroup’ Keeps Oil Exports Subdued
  • 2 days One Belt, One Road, One Direction for Precious Metals
  • 2 days Vicious Trio Keeps Bitcoin in Chokehold
  • 2 days How Infrastructure Is Driving A Commodity Boom
  • 2 days What’s Really Happening With Venezuela’s “El Petro?”
  • 2 days Gold Bull and Bear Markets
  • 3 days 5 Big Drivers of Higher Inflation Rates Ahead
  • 3 days U.S. And China To Face Off Over Aramco IPO
  • 3 days Gold Bulls, Brace Yourselves – Fed Hikes Are Coming!
  • 3 days Stocks Fail to Hold Gains, But Still No Correction
  • 3 days Cryptojacking: A New Threat Vector To Critical Infrastructure
  • 4 days Why The Next Oil Boom Will Be Fueled By Blockchain
  • 4 days 5 Things Investors Should Know About China this New Year
  • 4 days Is The South Korean Crypto-Drama Finally Over?
  • 4 days Miners’ Rally? What Rally? Watch Out for More Fake Moves!
  • 4 days Four Percent 10-year Note Yield Will Be a Floor Not a Ceiling
  • 4 days The End Is Near
  • 5 days 5 Record Breaking Gemstones Even Billionaires Can’t Buy
  • 5 days Irredeemable Currency De-tooths Savers

Real Time Recession Indicator

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved month over month. However, the index still remains negative. More importantly, my real time recession indicator, which utilizes the CFNAI data, remains negative.

The real time recession indicator is constructed from the Economic Cycle Research Institute's Leading Economic Indicator and the CFNAI data. Looking at figure 1, the red labeled price bars correlate to those times that the indicator predicts that the US economy is in a recession. The green analogue line in the lower panel corresponds to the actual recession calls made by the National Bureau of Economic Research. While not perfect (but what is), there is a high degree of correlation between the two.

Figure 1. Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly
Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly

 

Figure 2. Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly
Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly

The CFNAI indicator is constructed from 85 different variables of national economic activity, and it is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. You read about the index by clicking here: Chicago Federal Reserve.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Don't Miss A Single Story