• 657 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 658 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 659 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,059 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,064 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,066 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,069 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,069 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,070 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,072 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,072 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,076 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,076 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,077 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,079 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,080 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,083 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,084 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,084 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,086 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Real Time Recession Indicator

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved month over month. However, the index still remains negative. More importantly, my real time recession indicator, which utilizes the CFNAI data, remains negative.

The real time recession indicator is constructed from the Economic Cycle Research Institute's Leading Economic Indicator and the CFNAI data. Looking at figure 1, the red labeled price bars correlate to those times that the indicator predicts that the US economy is in a recession. The green analogue line in the lower panel corresponds to the actual recession calls made by the National Bureau of Economic Research. While not perfect (but what is), there is a high degree of correlation between the two.

Figure 1. Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly
Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly

 

Figure 2. Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly
Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly

The CFNAI indicator is constructed from 85 different variables of national economic activity, and it is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. You read about the index by clicking here: Chicago Federal Reserve.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment