• 807 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 808 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 809 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,209 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,214 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,216 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,219 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,219 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,220 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,222 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,222 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,226 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,226 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,227 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,229 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,230 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,233 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,234 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,234 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,236 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Real Time Recession Indicator

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved month over month. However, the index still remains negative. More importantly, my real time recession indicator, which utilizes the CFNAI data, remains negative.

The real time recession indicator is constructed from the Economic Cycle Research Institute's Leading Economic Indicator and the CFNAI data. Looking at figure 1, the red labeled price bars correlate to those times that the indicator predicts that the US economy is in a recession. The green analogue line in the lower panel corresponds to the actual recession calls made by the National Bureau of Economic Research. While not perfect (but what is), there is a high degree of correlation between the two.

Figure 1. Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly
Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly

 

Figure 2. Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly
Real Time Recession Indicator/ weekly

The CFNAI indicator is constructed from 85 different variables of national economic activity, and it is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. You read about the index by clicking here: Chicago Federal Reserve.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment