• 806 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 807 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 808 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,208 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,213 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,215 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,218 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,218 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,219 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,221 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,221 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,225 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,225 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,226 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,228 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,229 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,232 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,233 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,233 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,235 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Investor Sentiment: What is Your Plan?

As we end another week of nuttiness, the only thing you need to know about investor sentiment is that the "dumb money" is buying and the "smart money" is selling. Now this doesn't always mean you should "run for the hills" because the world as you know it is about to end, but it probably does mean that we are closer to the end of this rally than at the beginning. If that is the case, ask yourself: what is your plan?

The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator shows extreme bullishness.

Figure 1. "Dumb Money"/ weekly
Dumb Money Weekly

Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore "entire market" value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: "Insider selling remains at elevated levels and during the recently completed short week of trading we saw a 25% increase in the number of sellers and an 18% increase in the number of buyers. The result was that sellers outnumbered buyers by a 4-to-1 ratio, consistent with a week earlier."

Figure 2. InsiderScore "Entire Market" value/ weekly
InsiderScore Entire Market Value Weekly

Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall. Currently, the value of the indicator is 70.61%. Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. Values greater than 58% are associated with market tops. It should be noted that the market topped out in 2011 with this indicator between 70% and 71%.

Figure 3. Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear/ weekly
Rydex Total Bull versus Total Bear

 


TheTechnicalTake offers a FREE e-newsletter: HERE

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment