• 525 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 526 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 527 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 927 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 932 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 934 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 937 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 937 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 938 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 940 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 940 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 944 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 944 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 945 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 947 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 948 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 951 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 952 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 952 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 954 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Going Into Capitulation Mode

There are a lot of things to say about today's session.

First of all, as the S&P was testing its 200d MA for more than 2 hours, we decided to book half of our gains by reducing our short position by half at 1284.75 => 1334.07 - 1284.75 = 49.32 (gains).

Looking at our indicators, we can notice that the Sigma Trend Index (STI) declined from '-5' to '-42'.

The Trend Level (TL) moved from 3 (=neutral) to 1 (=sharply down) and the Swing Indicator (Swing) moved from 3 (=neutral) to 1 (=extremely negative). All these data gave us the negative momentum we were looking for after Thursday's session.

Sigma table

Looking at our short term sentiment index, we can notice that the panic level (blue line) is picking up, but we are still well below extreme level (above 40%):

Euphoria versus panic

Looking at our Sigma Whole Market Index (aggregate of 16 US indexes), we can notice that for the first time the market closed below its 200 day MA.

On top of that, the Bollinger bands are expanding, telling us we are entering a capitulation phase. The first support is around 1349 (~=5% below current price) which would be fully in line with an S&P around 1200.

Sigma Whole Market Index

Conclusion:

We remain confident that there is more downside to come because markets entered in capitulation mode and the short term panic level is not high enough for a bottom.

We are comfortable with our 1/2 short position. We have a stop buy order at 1302 (in case of a sharp bounce back).

Current position: 1/2 short at 1334.07

Have a nice week-end.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment