"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

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Quick Take on USD

Excerpted from NFTRH198:

US Dollar Can Take a Breather

Global rally potential is all about arresting the deflation case for a counter trend expression of bullishness. Some of my inflationist friends will disagree, but I believe that the deflationary condition is the dominant backdrop (periodically fought by inflationary policy making) and that the admittedly valueless USD can see future upside.

There will be plenty more to write on this as the herds hiding in USD begin to come out and play with the asset market bulls. Because as usual, we'll begin highlighting what might come next well ahead of time.

$USD (US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD)) ICE
Larger Image

USD made a higher high in July while being negatively diverged by MACD and RSI. The sensitive CCI is now over sold with RSI at a support zone and with USD at the 50 day moving averages, a bounce can happen shortly.

But the 80 area should be respected. One can envision the global rally lasting as long as it takes USD to test the rising 200 day moving averages (red), which happen to coincide with a support area. The upturned moving averages paint any decline as counter trend.


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