• 138 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 143 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 145 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 148 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 148 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 149 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 151 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 151 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 155 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 155 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 156 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 158 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 159 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 162 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 163 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 163 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 165 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 166 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 169 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 170 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Investor Sentiment: Repudiation?

The repudiation by the markets of Federal Reserve policy is almost complete. Economic numbers continue to deteriorate, but from the beginning, Fed policy has not been about the economy. The markets have benefited from QE, and the current run up in asset prices prior to QE3 would suggest that investors quickly learned a winning behavior over the past 3 years. If the markets convincingly break the QE3 announcement lows, then QE3 is a failure for both the markets and the economy. The Bernanke put will be considered dead. If so, both asset prices and the economy will likely sink. Of course, the market will do its best to create that bullish spin. However, there will be little help from the sentiment picture as the data remains consistent with a market top or the late stages of the rally. There are too many bulls, and company insiders remain net sellers.

The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator is bearish, and just above the extremely bullish level.

Figure 1. "Dumb Money"/ weekly
Dumb Money Weekly

Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore "entire market" value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: "A Sell Bias remains intact across the market, however, a seasonal decline in insider trading volume has begun and will continue for the next two-to-four weeks as companies close trading windows, prohibiting insiders from trading until after Q3'12 earnings are announced."

Figure 2. InsiderScore "Entire Market" value/ weekly
InsiderScore Entire Market Value Weekly

Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall. Currently, the value of the indicator is 71.82%. Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. Values greater than 58% are associated with market tops. It should be noted that the market topped out in 2011 with this indicator between 70% and 72%.

Figure 3. Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear/ weekly
Rydex Total Bull versus Total Bear Weekly

 


TheTechnicalTake offers a FREE e-newsletter: HERE

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment