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Gordon Long

Gordon Long

Mr. Long is a former senior group executive with IBM & Motorola, a principle in a high tech public start-up and founder of a private…

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Charles Hugh Smith's 2013 Themes

Prolific author and web writer, Charles Hugh Smith discusses his 2013 Themes with Gordon T Long.

Highlights of the 2013 Themes Discussed:

  • Rising Systemic Fragility is increasing the odds of an "unexpected" breakdown.

    • It is now reaching the "Threshold of Vulnerability".

  • The FED Losses Political Capital in 2013.

    • We are witnessing a reduced impact of each QE version,

    • Expect Hope to Turn to Fear when this occurs.

  • Economic Stagnation and Permanent Adolescence

    • Using the Japanese Model, diminishing opportunities are resulting in a completely new youth behavior.

  • Probabilities of a Stock Market Decline increased.

    • Revisitng the Coppock Killer Curve.

    • The debate about recession or no recession is meaningless; incomes are declining for most households and corporate profits will take a hit as the global slowdown increases and the US dollar rises.

  • The Velocity of Money dooms the Fed's liquidity/stimulus policies.

    • People either are afraid to invest, don't see any viable investments or it is FEAR and a growing Crisis of Trust.

    • The Fed has done its best for four years to push investors into risk assets (by lowering yields on safe savings to near-zero) and to push households to borrow and spend more. The fundamental failure of their policies is that all the liquidity is simply now becoming "dead money."

  • Income is the foundation of real economic growth. It is declining in real terms.

    • Nominally income appears to have grown 24% since 2000. Adjusted for inflation, it has declined by almost 10%.

    • However, the Middle Class have seen their income decline by MORE than 10%

  • Small Business--the Engine of Growth--is in a Long Term Structural Decline.

    • Uncertainty, higher taxes and regulatory fees/costs have eroded the incentives to risk capital and the time to start and expanding a small business.


25 Minutes, 29 Slides


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