• 681 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 681 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 683 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,082 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,087 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,089 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,092 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,093 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,093 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,095 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,095 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,099 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,100 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,100 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,103 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,103 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,106 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,107 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,107 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,109 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Daily: Just a Question of Days

Looking at the chart, we can notice that the momentum is fading: until recently, the market evolved in the upper part of the uptrend channel (above the blue line for wave 'red 1' and 'red 3'), but now the market is in the lower part of the uptrend. This tells us that the advance is coming to an end.

But the main question is: Are we close to the top or did we already reach the top?

Our core scenario is that we still need one more high in order to finish the current advance (should be less than one week from now). Thereafter, a powerful setback will occur.

Sigma Whole Market Index Count 1 Chart

The alternative scenario is that we have already reached the top and the market is in a distribution phase prior to acceleration to the downside. Looking at the wave pattern it would be possible: subwave 4 blue = triangle (clear on intraday) but subwave 5 would be very small.

But there is no negative momentum at this stage, so we consider this scenario as an alternative one.

Sigma Whole Market Index Count 2 Chart

Looking at our indicator, the Sigma Trend Index remains above the zero line, the Swing moved from '2' to '4' ('mild' positive signal)

Sigma Table

Our short term model remains in 'buy' mode for both the SPX and the NDX:

NDX Model Table

SPX Model Table


Conclusion:

We believe we haven't reached the top yet, but we are very close to print it.

March, April and May are often important turning points in the market: since 1993, 44% of major corrections (above 10%) started either in March, April or May.

We are ready to open new positions if/when we get a sell signal from our short term model.

Short term positions:
- no more position

Medium term positions:
- short 3 SPX at 1446.09
- Short 1 NDX at 2758.8
- short 2 CAC at 3251.07

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment