• 520 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 520 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 522 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 921 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 926 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 928 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 931 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 931 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 932 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 934 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 934 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 938 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 939 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 939 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 942 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 942 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 945 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 946 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 946 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 948 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Hand Off to a New Fed Chair is Well Timed

It is as notable as a 2nd term president handing off the big problems to the next guy, as George Bush did with Barack Obama in 2008; the changing of the guard at the Fed, that is.

Alan Greenspan oversaw the making of a stock bubble in the final phase of the great bull market ended in 2000. He then instigated a credit bubble, which launched a housing bubble, made the credit hopped consumer feel wealthy and oh yes, built unsustainable distortions into the system through diced and sliced debt derivative vehicles of all kinds.

Then in 2006 he deftly made the hand off to Ben Bernanke. Bernanke then dealt with the Maestro's second aftermath as it began cropping up in 2007 and now, nearly 4.5 years into a cyclical bull market that has another 6 months or so to run if it is to match the two previous cycles (not a given), it is time once again for a hand off.

Obama eyes naming Fed pick within months

The poor shlep. Seriously, whether Larry Summers, Janet Yellen or some out of left field dark horse pick, the new Fed chief will probably end up with a mess to deal with. The S&P 500 is going up in lock step with the adjusted money supply that has been ramped due to QE's bond buying and monetization.

Here is a chart from NFTRH 249 that shows this in glaring detail. Increasing 'taper' talk (let alone action) would probably not be helpful to the markets if the strong correlation holds.

S&P 500 & Monetary Base Correlation Chart
S&P 500 & Monetary Base Correlation

I believe that global Treasury bond supply/demand dynamics and not the Fed will decide when the bond purchase program will end. From NFTRH 249:

"The decisions are being made for them. Why on earth do you think they are flip flopping around in the media about 'taper, no taper, maybe taper... dohhh!'? They are like day traders looking at a 5 minute chart. They are day trading a super critical macro economic concept."

and ...

"If you believe that the Fed is not all controlling and currently enjoys the equal and opposite status to the bumblers they were perceived as in 2011, you might think that their stock has peaked, given the pressure that the bond market is starting to exert upon them.

If the Fed's stock has peaked, what about its ability to keep the blue line spiking? If the blue line peaks, what about the maroon line? According to the chart above bulls remain Caught in a Dream: "Thought I was livin'... But you can't never tell... What I thought was heaven... Turned out to be hell." - Michael Bruce, from Alice Cooper's classic album Love it to Death."

So we have some 'new Fed Chairman' drama to look forward to now in a market environment that always seems to have something to fixate upon in an age of extreme obsession with policy makers. The chart says that the Fed will only be popular as long as the blue line keeps rising. It does seem as though Mr. Bernanke's timing is just as good as that of his predecessor.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment