• 1,075 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,075 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,077 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,477 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,482 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,484 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,487 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,487 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,488 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,490 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,490 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,494 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,494 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,495 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,497 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,498 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,501 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,502 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,502 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,504 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

About that 'Beat the Street' GDP Number

GDP beat second quarter estimates of 1 percent easily. However, the BEA revised first quarter growth down from 1.7% to 1.1%.

Is this a good thing, a bad thing, or nonsense?

The correct answer is "nonsense". One look at BEA GDP Release is all it takes to determine the answer.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter compared with 1.4 percent in the first.


How Convenient

My friend "BC" says

How convenient, otherwise real GDP would have printed at 0.8%, prices constant.

Yet, the yoy rate of real final sales per capita is below 1% for the second quarter in a row, whereas the second quarter annualized rate is near contracting. Had the deflator been reported at the rate in Q1, the yoy and 2-qtr. annualized real final sales per capita rates would have been reported as contracting.

Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives came up with similar conclusions via email.

Doug writes

  • Official GDP with the BEA's GDP deflator (0.71% which is rounded in the popular press to 0.7%) gives us the official GDP of 1.67%, which rounds to 1.7%
  • GDP with a hypothetical 1.6% deflator (as forecast by Briefing.com) would have been 0.78%, which rounds to 0.8%.
  • GDP with the average deflator over the past 14 quarters (which is 1.75%) would have been 0.64%, which rounds to 0.6%.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment