AUD/USD has thus far failed to break a key resistance area (50% retracement, 200 day moving average and 0.9792). The recent break of the support at 0.9572 (see also the rising trendline) strengthens our view of a medium term phase of weakness. Monitor the test of the support at 0.9499 (16/10/2013 low). Other supports can be found at 0.9388 (07/10/2013 low) and 0.9281. A resistance now lies at 0.9624 (25/10/2013 high).
The long-term technical pattern remains negative thus far. Therefore, we expect the strong resistance at 0.9792 (03/06/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) to cap the medium-term upside potential and lead to a new phase of weakness for AUD/USD.