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USDJPY Long-Term EWP

Long-Term EWP

We can make the case that from the April 1990 high to the October 2011 low price has unfolded a 3-wave down leg, hence the October low can be considered either a wave (A); Red label or a wave (W); Blue label.

If the October 2011 low is a wave (A), in which case price will unfold a Zig Zag, the current up leg belongs to the infancy stage of a wave (B). The assumed wave (B) could top at the 0.618 retracement of the decline off the 1990 high or it could fully retrace the entire pattern. Once the wave (B) is in place price will unfold a large (multi-year) wave (C) down.

If the October 2011 low is a wave (W), in which case price would unfold a Double Zig Zag, the current up leg is a wave (X), which could top in the area of the trend line that connects the August 98 high with the June 2007 high. Once the wave (X) is in place price will unfold a large multi-year Zig Zag down.

USDJPY Monthly Chart
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If the DZZ is the correct count we can mark out the potential target of the assumed wave (X) in the range 105.56 - 113.77.

USDJPY Weekly Chart
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From the October 2011 low to the May 2013 high we can count the advance as a Double Zig Zag. The May 2013 high can be either the wave (W); Red count, or the second wave (A); Blue count (Preferred count).

If the corrective pattern off the May 2013 is not over (Preferred scenario) I expect price to establish a bottom in the range 90.84- 89.64.

USDJPY Weekly Zoom Chart
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Weekly momentum displays a bearish cross of the MACD while the RSI so far is holding the 50 line. Obviously, if the scenario of a larger correction is correct, the RSI eventually will have to lose the 50 line.

USDJPY Weekly Momentum Chart
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In the following weekly chart I show you the reason of my interest in this pair.

As it can be seen it is probable that price is on the verge of concluding a Triangle. This potential Triangle in my opinion will establish the wave (B) of a Zig Zag off the May high. Therefore if this scenario is correct the following wave (C) should bottom in the range 90.84 - 90.40.

USDJPY Triangle Chart
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In the next chart I zoom in the assumed Triangle.

I don't know yet if the wave (E) of the Triangle is over or if another up leg will complete the Triangle in the range 99.67 - 99.80. (Upper converging trend line)

If the Triangle pans out the measured target for the expected wave (C) down is located at 91.80 +/-.

On Thursday price achieved the equality extension target of a possible DZZ (From the October 7 low), the following reversal left a a daily doji, however Friday's outside day candlestick suggests that it is not clear yet if the Triangle is over.

On Friday I went short anticipating the potential bearish outcome, and now I have to establish my stop above the mentioned trend line.

USDJPY Daily Triangle Chart
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The Nikkei, which should maintain a negative correlation with the JPY it could have already, could have already completed the same pattern.

Nikkei 225 Daily Triangle Chart
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