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Mike McAra

Mike McAra

Mike is a quantitative analyst focused on the economic reality, not theoretical models. His investment thinking is grounded on empirical evidence and common sense.

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Bitcoin Trading Alert: More Appreciation to Come for Bitcoin but Not Just Now

Bitcoin Trading Alert originally published on June 10, 2014, 11:02 AM


In short: we don't support any short-term positions in the Bitcoin market at the moment.

John Donahoe, eBay's CEO, told CNBC PayPal was "going to have to integrate digital currencies." He also expressed the view that digital currencies would "play an important role going forward."

This is quite a big deal since PayPal is actually part of the eBay business. Even if you consider the fact that Bitcoin has been already supported by companies like Overstock or Dish, PayPal accepting Bitcoin seems like a whole different story. The company has some 140 million registered user accounts. Combine that with the range of goods offered on eBay and you'll get all but the perfect marketplace for bringing Bitcoin to the wider audience.

The evolution of digital currencies might look like a slow process, at least to those who would like to see them implemented as soon as possible, but there might be landmark decisions along the way. If eBay figures out a way to make use of Bitcoin without interfering with the currency's most loved characteristic, i.e. the ability to support cheap and seamless payments, we might as well see that as an important step forward, particularly given the fact that not only Bitcoin-lovers use this platform. In fact, the ability to pay for goods on eBay in Bitcoin could popularize the currency among people who are not familiar with it at the moment.

For now, let's turn to the charts.

BITSTAMPUSD Bitcoin BitStamp (USD)
Larger Image

On BitStamp, we didn't see any decisive action yesterday. The volume was up but it was not confirmed by a large swing. If you recall what we wrote yesterday:

Bitcoin hasn't moved below $600 but we're still in the "standby" mode - in the past 6 months most rallies were followed by rather sharp corrections. We don't expect this to be the case now as the rally we saw in May and June seems to be different than the rallies we saw in the first half of the year. Caution is prescribed, nonetheless, since any sharp move up might be followed by a correction.

This is still the case today as Bitcoin hasn't moved much (this is written around 10:15 a.m. EDT). If anything, the short-term picture is now slightly more bearish since Bitcoin seems to be lagging the recent trend (grey line on the chart above). This doesn't have extremely bearish implications but doesn't inspire to go long just now.

Has anything changed on the long-term BTC-e chart?

Larger Image

It doesn't look like there have been any major changes in the outlook. Bitcoin is still consolidating above the trend line and, perhaps more importantly, above $600 (green line on the chart). All this looks like a pause before another move up.

If we combine the two outlooks, the short-term one and the long-term one, it seems that we might still see some weakness in the days to come or at least more sideway trading before a stronger move up materializes. Consequently, we're waiting for a sign of short-term strength before opening long positions.

Summing up, in our opinion no short-term positions should be kept in the Bitcoin market at the moment.

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): no positions.



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