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Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally ForexInfo.us)…

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GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Last Elliott wave analysis of Gold expected one more downwards wave of about $27 in length before the upwards trend resumed. This is not what happened. Movement above 1,284.99 invalidated the hourly wave count.

Summary: Minor wave A may be close to completion. Upwards movement should continue to a target at 1,330.

XAU/USD Chart - Daily
Larger Image

Gold is still within a large fourth wave correction at primary wave degree which is incomplete.

Primary wave 2 was a rare running flat. Primary wave 4 is unlikely to be a flat correction because it is likely to show structural alternation with primary wave 2.

This wave count expects primary wave 4 is a huge triangle. The triangle is now within the final wave of intermediate wave (E) which should subdivide as a zigzag.

Intermediate wave (E) is most likely to fall short of the (A) - (C) trend line. It may also overshoot this trend line, but that is less common.

Within the zigzag of intermediate wave (E) minor wave B may not move beyond the start of minor wave A at 1,240.51.

So far within primary wave 4 intermediate wave (A) lasted 43 days, intermediate wave (B) lasted 88 days, intermediate wave (C) lasted 53 days and intermediate wave (D) lasted 56 days. Intermediate wave (E) may last a total of about 43 to 56 days. So far it has only lasted 11 days.

XAU/USD Chart - Hourly
Larger Image

Minute wave iv was complete. I had labeled this downwards movement as a five wave impulse because that is what it looks like, and impulses are the most common Elliott wave structures. The only complete corrective structure which fits for that wave is a very rare triple zigzag. The rarity of triples means I did not consider that possibility, and that is the problem with rare structures. You never expect to see them based on probability, and only label them so once all other options are eliminated.

Invalidation of yesterday's hourly wave count with movement above 1,284.99 indicated minute wave iv had to be over and the upwards trend for minor wave A had resumed.

With minute wave iv complete minute wave v upwards is showing strong momentum, typical of fifth waves in commodity markets.

Minute wave v would reach 1.618 the length of minute wave iii at 1,330.

Within minute wave v minuette wave (iii) would reach 4.236 the length of minuette wave (i) at 1,325.

Within minuette wave (iii) subminuette wave iii is just 0.77 short of 6.854 the length of subminuette wave i.

When minor wave A is complete then I would expect a few days to a couple of weeks of very choppy overlapping downwards movement for minor wave B. Minor wave A may end within one or two more days.


This analysis is published about 05:13 p.m. EST


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