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Geo-Political Turmoil

Instability, Fragmentation, Resource Wars

With Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

21 Minutes, 19 Slides


Sources of Instability

FAILED Governments/States

    • North Korea,
    • Venezuela,
    • Pakistan, etc.
      • Weak Institutions & Corruption
      • Failed Political Governance
        • Failure of Central Planning Model
        • Failure of Neo-Liberal Model of Capitalism
        • Global Supply Chains Under Pressure

FRAGMENTATION of nation-states assembled in the 20th century by the Great Powers

  • Iraq,
  • Syria, et

ISIS

DIVIDED Geopolitical loyalties of traditional states

  • Ukraine

RESOURCE WARS

  • ENERGY and transport of energy (Ukraine, Iraq, Africa, China-vs-Rest of East Asia, etc.)
  • FEWER resources (food, water, energy)
  • SHORTAGES / RISING PRICES of resources

INSOLVENCY of Nations/Governments due to unpayable debts (Greece, Cyprus, etc.)


Observations

  • Each source of instability generates regional instability that disrupts other nation-states and attracts wealthy-states/quasi-Imperial interventions that further destabilize the region.
  • The likelihood that all these interlocking sources of instability will go away naturally or be resolved is low. Predictability is also low as instability is intrinsically non-linear.
  • National and global instability caused by eroding purchasing power of currencies; as currencies lose purchasing power, imports become prohibitively expensive, triggering higher prices and shortages that exacerbate wealth/income inequalities.

 


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