Instability, Fragmentation, Resource Wars

With Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

21 Minutes, 19 Slides

Sources of Instability

FAILED Governments/States

• North Korea,
• Venezuela,
• Pakistan, etc.
  • Weak Institutions & Corruption
  • Failed Political Governance
    • Failure of Central Planning Model
    • Failure of Neo-Liberal Model of Capitalism
    • Global Supply Chains Under Pressure

FRAGMENTATION of nation-states assembled in the 20th century by the Great Powers

• Iraq,
• Syria, et

ISIS

DIVIDED Geopolitical loyalties of traditional states

• Ukraine

RESOURCE WARS

• ENERGY and transport of energy (Ukraine, Iraq, Africa, China-vs-Rest of East Asia, etc.)
• FEWER resources (food, water, energy)
• SHORTAGES / RISING PRICES of resources

INSOLVENCY of Nations/Governments due to unpayable debts (Greece, Cyprus, etc.)

Observations

• Each source of instability generates regional instability that disrupts other nation-states and attracts wealthy-states/quasi-Imperial interventions that further destabilize the region.
• The likelihood that all these interlocking sources of instability will go away naturally or be resolved is low. Predictability is also low as instability is intrinsically non-linear.
• National and global instability caused by eroding purchasing power of currencies; as currencies lose purchasing power, imports become prohibitively expensive, triggering higher prices and shortages that exacerbate wealth/income inequalities.

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Thesis Paper: Financial Repression

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