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Paul Rejczak

Paul Rejczak

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market…

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Stock Trading Alert: Indexes Continue Their March Up As Investors' Euphoria Extends

Stock Trading Alert originally published on December 22, 2014, 6:17 AM:


Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.2% and 0.5% on Friday, extending their recent rally, as investors continued to react to last week's FOMC rate decision release. The S&P 500 index got closer to its December 5th all-time high of 2,079.47. The nearest important resistance level is at around 2,080. On the other hand, support level is at 2,050-2,060, among others. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, however, we can see some short-term overbought conditions:

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.3%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.7-0.9% so far. Investors will now wait for the Existing Home Sales number release at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) trades close to last week's highs, as it fluctuates along the level of 2,070. The nearest important support level is at around 2,055-2,060, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

S&P500 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) got closer to the level of 4,300, as it retraced most of its previous decline. The nearest important level of resistance remains at 4,300, as the 15-minute chart shows:

NASDAQ 100 Futures 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

Concluding, the broad stock market continued its rally on Friday, following a sharp rebound off last week's lows. We can see some short-term overbought conditions, however, there have been no confirmed negative signals so far. Therefore, we prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.

Thank you.


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