As you probably know, I would not be surprised if the stock market crashes within the September / October 2015 time period. I believe the economic fundamentals are poor and getting worse, fast. In order to prepare, this weekend I examined how U.S. Bonds and Gold did during the past several stock market crashes.
I went back and took a look at how Gold fared the precise time that the stock market crashed in September 2001, September/October 2008, and again in July/August 2011. What we found was that Gold not only rallied, but it rose significantly and contemporaneously as the stock market crashed.
Gold spike almost 10 percent during the week after 9/11/2001, while stocks plunged.
Gold catapulted almost 25 percent during the stock market crash of September/October 2008.
Gold even air-lifted 25 percent during the July / August 2011 stock market crash.
What this tells us is there appears to be an inverse relationship between Gold and the stock market during stock market crashes. This could be very useful information this year in 2015, when we could see the next great stock market crash, possibly again in the September / October time period.
In examining how U.S. Bonds behaved during U.S. stock market crashes, we observed the following:
U.S. Bonds rose substantially and quickly during stock market crashes of the past. They likely will again when the next stock market crash occurs.
Why do we see a stock market crash coming later in 2015? Well, there are several reasons, not the least of which I pointed out in my book, the Coming Economic Ice Age (available at www.amazon.com), is a massive multi-decade Megaphone Broadening Top pattern that is essentially complete, or will be very soon. The history for this pattern is that in almost every instance that it has showed up over the past century, a major economic decline has followed, including major stock market declines and crashes. The only difference this time is this pattern is exponentially larger than any we have seen in the past century.
But over a shorter time horizon, we also see that the stock market is concluding a Rising Bearish Wedge pattern from October 2014, which we believe is the final pattern to complete the above multi-decade Jaws of Death Megaphone pattern. This Rising Bearish Wedge looks like it should finish sometime over the next month.
Once this top is in, a very strong and protracted decline will begin, including what we believe will be a stock market crash in 2015, and possibly more crashes over the next several years, a decline that wipes out $ trillions from the U.S. economy, and spreads across the globe, the beginning of the Economic Ice Age. We are already seeing signs of a woeful downturn in the U.S. economy. First quarter GDP was close to recession levels; housing is 35 percent below a year ago; and employment gains are non-existent, as Friday, May 8th's reported non-farm payrolls of 223,000 was a complete fictitious fabrication, as 213,000 (95 percent) of those reported 223,000 jobs were not counted, but were a guess from the Bureau of Labor statistics (per their own CES Birth-Death report), a 'lets pretend" number they think may have come from new jobs from new businesses they hope were created in April 2015. In short, the U.S. economy is headed into the tank, and fast.
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"Jesus said to them, "I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me
shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst.
For I have come down from heaven,
For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds
the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life;
and I Myself will raise him up on the last day."
John 6: 35, 38, 40