• 2 hours Gold Miners Eye Big Third Quarter Profits
  • 8 hours The U.S. Doubles Down On Domestic Lithium Production
  • 1 day Reddit Trader Scores 14,000% Returns On Rogue Trade
  • 2 days The Tangled Web Stretching From Turkey To DC
  • 2 days The U.S. Dollar Eyes Greater Upside
  • 2 days More And More Americans Believe A Recession Is Looming
  • 2 days Is The Pot Stock Boom Over Already?
  • 3 days How The California Utility Crisis Could Have Been Avoided
  • 3 days The Ugly Truth About Investing In Private Equity Deals
  • 4 days The World Is Facing A $1 Trillion Food Waste Crisis
  • 4 days Is It Time To Buy The Dip In Gold?
  • 4 days The History Of Oil Markets
  • 5 days Three Stocks To Watch Ahead Of Earnings Season
  • 5 days Markets Flat As Bulls And Bears Battle It Out
  • 5 days The Mining Industry Still Has a Human Rights Problem
  • 6 days 5 Billionaires Booted From Their Own Companies
  • 6 days Can Toyota's Hydrogen Car Take On Tesla?
  • 7 days Why Universal Basic Income Won't Work
  • 8 days Is This The Real Golden State?
  • 8 days Blockchain Firm Pushes For Ethical Mining
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

More on The Big Picture Stock Market Cycle

In the previous post Tom McClellan highlights Peter Eliades' work on the cyclical top due in the S&P 500 this year. To add some color to it, here is the chart I produced for NFTRH subscribers several weeks ago after purchasing and reading an Eliades report myself. His work came to my attention by way of Robert Prechter.

SPX Monthly Chart

Bear in mind that this big picture cycle is a blunt tool, much like market sentiment or other indicators that show risk, but for extended periods, little risk discovery. So as McClellan mentions, it takes much finer detail management to gauge a topping process. That is what makes market management interesting and sometimes even fun; adding details and color to big picture theses.

We should not look at one chart and its message without cross referencing other charts, data and indicators. The best risk vs. reward scenarios come about when multiple data points come to similar conclusions.

Anyway, staying on the big picture, here is another monthly chart of the S&P 500 we have been using in NFTRH that shows yes indeed, a top (of some kind) is indicated by the monthly MACD signal, but...

SPX Monthly Chart 2

...that each of the last two major tops included a bearish MACD signal that preceded a drop to the monthly EMA 20, which turned out to be a pause to refresh prior to ultimate bull market highs in both cases.

Will it be different this time? Very possibly, but also very possibly not. The stock market cycle indicates that it will be different because the S&P is supposedly due for a major top. But the color and detail can only be painted in by doing the shorter-term work each week. Especially since this cycle has had a certain 'rule breaker' aspect to it, due in my opinion to historically aggressive policy maker inputs (and resulting distortions) from its birth in Q4 2008/Q1 2009 to today.

 


Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas, or the Free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Oh, and follow @BiiwiiNFTRH.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment