"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 12 hours Gold: The Religion Of Currency
  • 2 days Economists Polarized On Trump’s Tariff Plan
  • 2 days Why Are Investors Overlooking Gold Stocks?
  • 3 days The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B
  • 3 days Super-Cycles: Why Gold Is Set For A Breakout
  • 3 days U.S. Sanctions Russia For Election Meddling And Cyberattacks
  • 3 days Snap Shares Tank Over ‘Slap Rihanna’ Campaign
  • 3 days How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
  • 3 days Amazon’s Japan HQ Raided In Anti-Monopoly Push
  • 3 days Is Barrick Gold Close To Finding A Bottom?
  • 3 days Morgan Stanley’s Top 10 Short-Term Stock Picks
  • 4 days China: The Land Of The Ultra-Rich
  • 4 days Alibaba Soars On Reports Of China Listing
  • 4 days What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?
  • 4 days SEC And IRS Take An Aggressive Stance On Cryptocurrencies
  • 4 days Bears And Bulls Face Off In Gold Markets
  • 4 days Bitcoin Is Winning Over The Housing Market
  • 4 days Markets Slide Sideways As Trade War Fears Linger
  • 4 days Why Aren’t Millennials Investing?
  • 5 days Bitcoin And Banking: The Next Mobile Payment Revolution
Amazon’s Bid For A Monopoly On Everything

Amazon’s Bid For A Monopoly On Everything

Amazon started in e-commerce, but…

Consumer Confidence Fails To Boost Retail Sales

Consumer Confidence Fails To Boost Retail Sales

Consumer confidence measured by market…

More on The Big Picture Stock Market Cycle

In the previous post Tom McClellan highlights Peter Eliades' work on the cyclical top due in the S&P 500 this year. To add some color to it, here is the chart I produced for NFTRH subscribers several weeks ago after purchasing and reading an Eliades report myself. His work came to my attention by way of Robert Prechter.

SPX Monthly Chart

Bear in mind that this big picture cycle is a blunt tool, much like market sentiment or other indicators that show risk, but for extended periods, little risk discovery. So as McClellan mentions, it takes much finer detail management to gauge a topping process. That is what makes market management interesting and sometimes even fun; adding details and color to big picture theses.

We should not look at one chart and its message without cross referencing other charts, data and indicators. The best risk vs. reward scenarios come about when multiple data points come to similar conclusions.

Anyway, staying on the big picture, here is another monthly chart of the S&P 500 we have been using in NFTRH that shows yes indeed, a top (of some kind) is indicated by the monthly MACD signal, but...

SPX Monthly Chart 2

...that each of the last two major tops included a bearish MACD signal that preceded a drop to the monthly EMA 20, which turned out to be a pause to refresh prior to ultimate bull market highs in both cases.

Will it be different this time? Very possibly, but also very possibly not. The stock market cycle indicates that it will be different because the S&P is supposedly due for a major top. But the color and detail can only be painted in by doing the shorter-term work each week. Especially since this cycle has had a certain 'rule breaker' aspect to it, due in my opinion to historically aggressive policy maker inputs (and resulting distortions) from its birth in Q4 2008/Q1 2009 to today.


Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas, or the Free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Oh, and follow @BiiwiiNFTRH.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter