• 774 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 774 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 776 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,176 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,180 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,182 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,185 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,186 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,187 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,188 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,189 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,193 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,193 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,194 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,196 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,196 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,200 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,200 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,201 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,203 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold's Unsafe Haven and Yen's Comeback

Gold's accelerating sell-off since June 18 highlights the metal's deteriorating role as a safe haven amid Greece uncertainty as other factors take priority. Oil's 19% decline from its May highs at a time when central banks have barely begun seeing some sort of positive trend in inflation resurrects fears of deflation or prolonged disinflation.

We saw these price worries escalate back in January-February in the midst of the winter plunge in oil. And with gold seen as a hedge for inflation, any signs that disinflation or deflation returning would eliminate gold's attribute as an anti-inflation hedge.

The 34% plunge in the Shanghai Composite index over the last 3 ½ weeks and the 14% drop in the DAX-30 from its April highs, combined with the 19% drop in oil have stopped bond yields in their tracks, highlighting renewed downside risks to global growth, which is prominently reflected in falling commodities, falling yields and falling equities.

The aforementioned dynamics explain the yen's outperformance relative to all major currencies as charted against gold due to unwinding of carry trade back to the original funding currency.

We expect a surprise rate cut from Canada next week as the policy easing race seen six months ago returns. USD losses will follow as the case for a Fed rate hike is dealt another blow.

Gold % Change versus Currencies Since June 1

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment