• 726 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 727 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 728 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,128 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,133 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,135 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,138 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,138 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,139 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,141 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,141 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,145 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,145 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,146 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,148 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,149 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,152 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,153 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,153 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,155 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Trading On The Mark

Trading On The Mark

Trading On The Mark

Our work is grounded in several technical methods. We make use of Elliott Wave, Gann techniques, Fibonacci relationships in price and time, cycles, and other…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Crude Oil Prices Probably Made a Low

A potentially completed Elliott wave count on the crude oil futures charts suggests that traders will benefit from having a bullish bias during the next several months. Here we show how the pattern resolved with last week's low, and we offer some initial milestones and a timeline for a potential upward move.

For much of 2014, we had been following the large downward 'C' wave in crude oil futures. The end of wave C should mark a significant low. The monthly chart below shows how price reached some square-of-nine targets at 44.88 and 38.43, and you can also discern the five-wave structure of the decline from 2013. On a monthly time frame, the move can be complete.

Crude Oil Monthly Chart

The weekly chart for continuous-contract futures shows a classic five-wave structure for downward wave C, with the third wave being the strongest, while the second and fourth waves are proportionate to each other. We had been using three main Fibonacci-related supports as possible targets for the end of the downward fifth wave, and price appears to have found support near the central target of $38.00.

Going forward, the first major confirmation signal that traders might watch for on a weekly time frame will be a break of the upper channel boundary shown on the continuous-contract chart. Price obeyed the geometry of the channel throughout 2014 and early 2015, and breaking out of that geometry should reignite some interest in long positions.

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Since the termination of downward wave C represents completion of a pattern, there is not yet enough information about the next chart pattern to project upward targets. However, we believe price is likely to trade in a sideways-upward fashion, probably staying within the range between the recent low and the price area that was broken last autumn. Our cycles analysis for crude oil products suggests that the sideways-upward phase should persist until the early months of 2016.

It is not a certainty that downward wave [v] of C has finished. Traders looking upward should allow for the possibility that price needs to make one more lower low before it can break out of the downward pattern.

Markets are becoming more volatile now. Discover how much your profits can increase with expert guidance in finding the trades. Subscribe to Trading On The Mark today!

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment