• 4 hours What Is Africa’s Role In The New Silk Road?
  • 1 day Trump Was Right About The Dollar
  • 1 day Is Silver Gearing Up For A Rally?
  • 1 day World’s Largest Hedge Fund Turns Bullish On Gold
  • 1 day It’s Time To Spend More On Clean Energy R&D
  • 2 days Contrarian Investors Are Beating The Stock Market
  • 2 days Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency Falls Victim To Biggest Cyber Heist In History
  • 2 days Amazon Faces European Union Anti-Trust Probe
  • 2 days Commodities Are Having A Stellar Year
  • 3 days Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 3 days 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 3 days Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 3 days EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 4 days Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
  • 4 days Chinese Police Bust Largest Ever Illicit Crypto Mining Operation
  • 4 days Expect A Pullback Before Gold's Next Major Rally
  • 4 days Why Interest On Gold Matters
  • 5 days Ten Extravagant Food Items For The Wealthy Only
  • 5 days Why Saudi Arabia Won't Give Up On The Aramco IPO
  • 6 days $32 Million Crypto Heist Halts Tokyo Exchange
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Trading On The Mark

Trading On The Mark

Trading On The Mark

Our work is grounded in several technical methods. We make use of Elliott Wave, Gann techniques, Fibonacci relationships in price and time, cycles, and other…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Crude Oil Prices Probably Made a Low

A potentially completed Elliott wave count on the crude oil futures charts suggests that traders will benefit from having a bullish bias during the next several months. Here we show how the pattern resolved with last week's low, and we offer some initial milestones and a timeline for a potential upward move.

For much of 2014, we had been following the large downward 'C' wave in crude oil futures. The end of wave C should mark a significant low. The monthly chart below shows how price reached some square-of-nine targets at 44.88 and 38.43, and you can also discern the five-wave structure of the decline from 2013. On a monthly time frame, the move can be complete.

Crude Oil Monthly Chart

The weekly chart for continuous-contract futures shows a classic five-wave structure for downward wave C, with the third wave being the strongest, while the second and fourth waves are proportionate to each other. We had been using three main Fibonacci-related supports as possible targets for the end of the downward fifth wave, and price appears to have found support near the central target of $38.00.

Going forward, the first major confirmation signal that traders might watch for on a weekly time frame will be a break of the upper channel boundary shown on the continuous-contract chart. Price obeyed the geometry of the channel throughout 2014 and early 2015, and breaking out of that geometry should reignite some interest in long positions.

Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Since the termination of downward wave C represents completion of a pattern, there is not yet enough information about the next chart pattern to project upward targets. However, we believe price is likely to trade in a sideways-upward fashion, probably staying within the range between the recent low and the price area that was broken last autumn. Our cycles analysis for crude oil products suggests that the sideways-upward phase should persist until the early months of 2016.

It is not a certainty that downward wave [v] of C has finished. Traders looking upward should allow for the possibility that price needs to make one more lower low before it can break out of the downward pattern.

Markets are becoming more volatile now. Discover how much your profits can increase with expert guidance in finding the trades. Subscribe to Trading On The Mark today!


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment