• 747 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 747 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 749 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,149 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,154 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,156 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,159 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,159 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,160 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,162 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,162 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,166 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,166 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,167 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,169 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,170 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,173 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,174 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,174 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,176 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Us Revenue, Margin and Manufacturing Recessions

Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative Growth

Full Report: Download pdf 24 Pages

Vhart 1

The NYSE Short Interest Rate (right) is at levels not seen since just before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros. during the Financial Crisis. Clearly there is a lot of nervousness and it is more than just the expected drop of -4.5% in the current Q3 quarterly earnings. Revenue are expected to fall -5.0% and this makes it the third consecutive fall in quarterly revenues for the S&P 500. Coupled together this reinforces the fears that the global slowdown is washing ashore in the only global hope for growth being the US Economy.

Chart 2

Corporate Free Cash Flows are additionally falling and along with widening corporate yield spreads now crimps the tsunami of share buybacks which have been holding up the US equity markets against steadily deteriorating bad economic numbers.

Sentiment & Confidence has shifted as we predicted and with it the perception of risk. The worry of a US Economic Recession is now a real possibility. Without Central Bank actions, a 2016 recession is almost a certainty. But what can the Federal Reserve realistically do with rates already near zero (see chart below)?

Chart 3

We presently see the current market activity as a counter rally in a short term correcting market. We believe we have more price downside before the central bankers are forced to rush in more triage to keep this market alive. Expect the Central Bankers to do this when the S&P 500 nears 1800. They can't afford the collateral (underpinning the debt pyramid), to be eroded any further than this level without serious consequences!


What is Coming

Central Bank Options

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment