• 3 hours Tesla Slashes Prices Again
  • 5 hours The Modern History Of Financial Entropy
  • 21 hours Italy’s Central Bank Embraces Sustainable Investing
  • 24 hours Trump Lifts Metals Tariffs To Cool Simmering Trade War
  • 1 day Researchers Push To Limit Space Mining
  • 1 day Could China Start Dumping U.S. Treasury Bonds?
  • 2 days Is Winter Coming For HBO?
  • 2 days Rise Of EVs Signals Peak Gasoline
  • 3 days Jeff Bezos Doubles Down On Space Colonization Ambitions
  • 3 days Gold Mining Stocks Stuck In Limbo
  • 4 days Executive Order Targets Huawei Over Espionage
  • 4 days Why Now May Be The Best Time Ever To Hold Gold
  • 5 days Fake News Sinks Shares In UK-Based Bank
  • 5 days De Beers To Build $468 Million Diamond Recovery Ship
  • 5 days Moody's: Turkey Faces Possible Credit Downgrade
  • 5 days Tesla's Solar Sales Are Slipping
  • 6 days Auto Industry To Get Temporary Tariff Relief
  • 6 days Welcome To The World’s Biggest Free Trade Area
  • 6 days Central Banks Are Stockpiling Gold At The Fastest Rate In Half A Decade
  • 6 days U.S.-China Impasse Threatens Rare Earth Trade
How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Us Revenue, Margin and Manufacturing Recessions

Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative Growth

Full Report: Download pdf 24 Pages

Vhart 1

The NYSE Short Interest Rate (right) is at levels not seen since just before the 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros. during the Financial Crisis. Clearly there is a lot of nervousness and it is more than just the expected drop of -4.5% in the current Q3 quarterly earnings. Revenue are expected to fall -5.0% and this makes it the third consecutive fall in quarterly revenues for the S&P 500. Coupled together this reinforces the fears that the global slowdown is washing ashore in the only global hope for growth being the US Economy.

Chart 2

Corporate Free Cash Flows are additionally falling and along with widening corporate yield spreads now crimps the tsunami of share buybacks which have been holding up the US equity markets against steadily deteriorating bad economic numbers.

Sentiment & Confidence has shifted as we predicted and with it the perception of risk. The worry of a US Economic Recession is now a real possibility. Without Central Bank actions, a 2016 recession is almost a certainty. But what can the Federal Reserve realistically do with rates already near zero (see chart below)?

Chart 3

We presently see the current market activity as a counter rally in a short term correcting market. We believe we have more price downside before the central bankers are forced to rush in more triage to keep this market alive. Expect the Central Bankers to do this when the S&P 500 nears 1800. They can't afford the collateral (underpinning the debt pyramid), to be eroded any further than this level without serious consequences!


What is Coming

Central Bank Options

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment