• 7 hours The Next Fashion Frontier
  • 1 day What Is Africa’s Role In The New Silk Road?
  • 2 days Trump Was Right About The Dollar
  • 2 days Is Silver Gearing Up For A Rally?
  • 2 days World’s Largest Hedge Fund Turns Bullish On Gold
  • 2 days It’s Time To Spend More On Clean Energy R&D
  • 3 days Contrarian Investors Are Beating The Stock Market
  • 3 days Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency Falls Victim To Biggest Cyber Heist In History
  • 3 days Amazon Faces European Union Anti-Trust Probe
  • 3 days Commodities Are Having A Stellar Year
  • 4 days Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 4 days 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 4 days Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 4 days EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 5 days Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
  • 5 days Chinese Police Bust Largest Ever Illicit Crypto Mining Operation
  • 5 days Expect A Pullback Before Gold's Next Major Rally
  • 5 days Why Interest On Gold Matters
  • 6 days Ten Extravagant Food Items For The Wealthy Only
  • 6 days Why Saudi Arabia Won't Give Up On The Aramco IPO
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

EURUSD: Shifting The Trend To Bullish

Monthly time frame

  • The "big picture" for the EURUSD from the July 2008 top is bearish (Sequence of lower highs/lows)
  • There is a potential Head & Shoulder with a measured target at 0.79 although in order to achieve the measured target price has to breach the lower trend line of the channel that has been formed since the 2008 top and the trend line from the March 1985 bottom

EURUSD Monthly Chart
Larger Image

  • However last week rally could shift the shorter term trend from bearish to bullish (Central Planners now want a weaker USD)
  • It is still early in the month to draw a conclusion from the monthly candlestick. Two key levels to watch are: The 10 mma = 1.0994, which hast not been reclaimed since July 2014 and R1 = 1.1213 where the EURUSD has failed 7 times since March 2015.
  • Above 1.1213 we have R2 (August high) at 1.1712 and R3 at the 0.5 retracement of the decline from the May 2014 high and the neckline of the assumed Head & Shoulder in the range of 1.2227

EURUSD Monthly Chart 2
Larger Image

Weekly time frame:

  • From the December 6 higher low, after 8 weeks of a sideways move the EURUSD has finally breached the trend line resistance from the August peak and it has reclaimed the 50 wma (First time since June 2014). So now we have a new sequence of higher high/low, hence the weekly time frame trend is now up
  • Price has failed to breach the R1 = 1.1213 at the first attempt but if the 50 wma = 1.1016 holds odds should favor a move towards R2 = 1.1442

EURUSD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

  • Weekly oscillators are aligned with higher prices ahead: The RSI(14) has a positive divergence, it has reclaimed the 50 line and it has marginally breached the August peak; The MACD has a bullish signal cross in force since December

EURUSD Weekly Momentum Chart
Larger Image

Daily time:

  • If last week break out is a thrust from a Triangle, the pattern from the December 6 higher low is not impulsive (A major bottom is not in place)
  • So far we could have a Zig Zag underway with a potential impulsive wave (C)
  • If this is the case the EURUSD should retest the August high (R3)
  • Last week the EURUSD has reclaimed the 200 dma. Going forward the 200 dma must hold in order maintain the short-term bullish pattern

EURUSD Daily Chart
Larger Image

  • Daily oscillators are bullish. Maybe the overbought RSI(5) could result in some consolidation activity

EURUSD Daily Momentum Chart
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment