• 4 hours Airlines Could Recover, But Crew Remain Elusive
  • 5 hours Meet The Man Behind The World's Most Exciting Oil Play
  • 1 day Crypto-Mining Immigration Could Be The Start Of A New Trend
  • 3 days Hawkish Fed Sends Gold Prices Crashing
  • 4 days Bezos Is Heading To Space This Sunday
  • 8 days El Salvador’s Surprise Bitcoin Move
  • 11 days Markets Unfazed As Inflation Hits 13-Year High
  • 11 days How the Token Economy is Disrupting Financial Markets
  • 13 days FBI Investigating 100 Types Of Ransomware Attacks
  • 15 days Fed Ends Corporate Credit Emergency Lending Program
  • 17 days AMC Becomes the Latest Winning Meme Stock After GameStop
  • 19 days The Real Reason Your 401k Has Been Lagging
  • 19 days China Lifts Cap On Births, Allows Three Children Per Couple
  • 21 days The Market Is Ripe For Another GameStop Saga
  • 24 days Senate Grills Big Banks Over Pandemic Opportunism
  • 26 days Cannabis Has A Major Cash Problem
  • 26 days Ransomware Netted Criminals $350M In 2020 Alone
  • 27 days Russia Is Taking On Google
  • 28 days Chinese Regulators Deal Another Big Blow To Bitcoin
  • 29 days Ohio Residents Brave Vaccine for Chance To Win $1M
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

EURUSD: Shifting The Trend To Bullish

Monthly time frame

  • The "big picture" for the EURUSD from the July 2008 top is bearish (Sequence of lower highs/lows)
  • There is a potential Head & Shoulder with a measured target at 0.79 although in order to achieve the measured target price has to breach the lower trend line of the channel that has been formed since the 2008 top and the trend line from the March 1985 bottom

EURUSD Monthly Chart
Larger Image

  • However last week rally could shift the shorter term trend from bearish to bullish (Central Planners now want a weaker USD)
  • It is still early in the month to draw a conclusion from the monthly candlestick. Two key levels to watch are: The 10 mma = 1.0994, which hast not been reclaimed since July 2014 and R1 = 1.1213 where the EURUSD has failed 7 times since March 2015.
  • Above 1.1213 we have R2 (August high) at 1.1712 and R3 at the 0.5 retracement of the decline from the May 2014 high and the neckline of the assumed Head & Shoulder in the range of 1.2227

EURUSD Monthly Chart 2
Larger Image

Weekly time frame:

  • From the December 6 higher low, after 8 weeks of a sideways move the EURUSD has finally breached the trend line resistance from the August peak and it has reclaimed the 50 wma (First time since June 2014). So now we have a new sequence of higher high/low, hence the weekly time frame trend is now up
  • Price has failed to breach the R1 = 1.1213 at the first attempt but if the 50 wma = 1.1016 holds odds should favor a move towards R2 = 1.1442

EURUSD Weekly Chart
Larger Image

  • Weekly oscillators are aligned with higher prices ahead: The RSI(14) has a positive divergence, it has reclaimed the 50 line and it has marginally breached the August peak; The MACD has a bullish signal cross in force since December

EURUSD Weekly Momentum Chart
Larger Image

Daily time:

  • If last week break out is a thrust from a Triangle, the pattern from the December 6 higher low is not impulsive (A major bottom is not in place)
  • So far we could have a Zig Zag underway with a potential impulsive wave (C)
  • If this is the case the EURUSD should retest the August high (R3)
  • Last week the EURUSD has reclaimed the 200 dma. Going forward the 200 dma must hold in order maintain the short-term bullish pattern

EURUSD Daily Chart
Larger Image

  • Daily oscillators are bullish. Maybe the overbought RSI(5) could result in some consolidation activity

EURUSD Daily Momentum Chart
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment