• 3 hours Inflation Wipes Out Wage Growth
  • 1 day Turks Flock To Safe Haven Assets As Lira Plummets
  • 2 days Did North Korean Hackers Just Steal $13M From Global ATMs?
  • 2 days Asian Tech Stocks Rebound After A Tough Week
  • 2 days Switzerland Bans New Audi, Mercedes, Porsche Imports
  • 2 days Sealing Off The North Korea Smuggling Loophole
  • 2 days This Tech Giant Is Pushing For Blockchain Adoption
  • 2 days Venezuela’s Gold Reserves Are Reaching Critical Levels
  • 3 days Brexit Woes Weigh On The British Pound
  • 3 days Forget Turkey, This Is The Biggest Threat To European Finance
  • 3 days There’s No Hiding From Google
  • 3 days Turkish Lira Bounces Back After Qatar Bailout Pledge
  • 3 days What Happens If Tesla Goes Private?
  • 3 days China's Most Powerful Weapon In The Trade War
  • 3 days Can The S&P 500 Shake Off Negative Sentiment?
  • 4 days Standards Go Out The Window As Employers Struggle To Fill Jobs
  • 4 days The Two Trillion Dollar Markets Amazon Hasn’t Conquered
  • 4 days Digital Supermodels Outperform Humans
  • 4 days France Could Lose Billions In EU Trade Route Redirection
  • 4 days Beer Giants Are Striking Out With Millennials
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Uncertainty and Apprehensive Uneasiness

Sentiment Takes on a Tone of Worry

Uncertainty and Apprehensive Uneasiness

Full Report: Download pdf

When we wrote our 19 page report "Uncertainty and Apprehensive Uneasiness" along with a supporting video (19 minutes and 35 slides), though our focus was on a deteriorating Macro picture against falling equity markets, we were very concerned about what the resolution of the Iran Nuclear negotiations would mean. We concluded it wasn't positive for reasons irrelevant of the negotiated terms of the deal.


Endless Indicators of Serious Problems & Recession in 2016

S&P at 1550?

Over the past few quarters our monthly reports have been focused on the rapidly decaying fundamentals around the world. There is little doubt now of the degree of global slowdown we are experiencing, and the fact that these problems are washing ashore in the US. We are already reading mainstream writers talking about a potential US recession in 2016 which we reported was firmly in the cards back in Q3 2015.


Global FX Reserves

What we need to be focused on is that falling Global FX Reserves shows something quite startling. Reserves are not growing and in fact are shrinking! The same players who were the biggest builders of foreign reserves are now the ones falling the fastest.

Who? China and the major (non US) Energy Exporters.

Why? Maintain currency stabilization & PEGs as well as offset falling Current Accounts problems.

Foreign Reserves

What Does It Mean?

It means:

    • Many US$ PEGS are now in jeopardy,
    • Expect increasing problems with Credit Ratings, Leverage Loans, CLOs and Distressed Debt,
    • Another Banking Credit Crisis in the EU, as over leveraged banks are saddled with defaulting debt.
    • Oil War ahead.


Oil Wars Ahead

Though falling oil prices were initially the result of Saudi Arabia trying to strangle Shale Oil funding as US supply came on-board, it was subsequently escalated with Russia sanctions being imposed by the US. When sanctions were lifted in January when nuclear negotiations were completed between the US and Iran, the conflict took on a new dimension. The energy sector is now looking down the "gun barrel" of an oil war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This is even more serious than the oil and gas itself, since it pits Sunni's against Shiites.

Oil Wars Ahead?

To further compound the problems, it is also a war being fought by proxy in Syria over the future transport of oil and gas for the EU market. It potentially ignites a new cold war between the US and Russia

Middle East Map

Read and listen to more in the attached video and written report.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment