"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 9 hours Big Banks Double Down On Crypto Ambitions
  • 10 hours Investor Debt Outpaces S&P 500 Growth
  • 11 hours Will Bitcoin Ever Dethrone Gold?
  • 12 hours China's Orwellian Social Media Machine
  • 13 hours What Sparked Russia’s Gold Buying Spree?
  • 15 hours The War For "White Petroleum"
  • 16 hours Stock Market Bulls Are Running Out Of Steam
  • 17 hours Crypto Stocks Poised To Bounce Back
  • 1 day The Five Biggest Bubbles In Stock Market History
  • 1 day Was Finland’s Universal Basic Income Program A Failure?
  • 1 day China Goes Long On Gold
  • 1 day Is It Wise To Trade The Trump Effect?
  • 2 days The Tech That Telecom Giants Fear Most
  • 2 days China’s EV Industry Is Booming
  • 2 days How Will Gold React As North Korean Tensions Cool?
  • 2 days Is This The Biggest Mining Opportunity Of 2018?
  • 2 days China’s $33 Trillion Finance Industry Opens To Foreign Investment
  • 2 days Is Bitcoin Cash Overbought?
  • 2 days Financial Sector Reports Record Profits
  • 2 days Iran Bans Crypto Amid Currency Crisis
The FANG Stock Investors Should Avoid

The FANG Stock Investors Should Avoid

Thanks to a private data…

Tech Giants Rally Ahead Of Earnings Reports

Tech Giants Rally Ahead Of Earnings Reports

Earning season has just begun,…



Elliottwave-Forecast.com (by EME PROCESSING AND CONSULTING LLC) was founded in 2005 by Eric Morera. Since inception our company has provided tailored Financial Market Services to…

More Info

US Dollar Outlook into FOMC on March 16

When the Fed raised the rate last year, the minutes suggest that they were relatively hawkish and expected 4 more rate hikes in 2016, as December Fed's dot plot shows. Subsequent events after the December meeting however have seen oil, commodities, and indices selling off sharply, giving pressure to the headline inflation rate.

Central banks around the world have responded by loosening their monetary policy further. Last week ECB expanded the asset purchase to €80 billion / month and cut the deposit rate further to -0.4%. Earlier in the year, BOJ has also stunned the market by cutting the deposit rate to - 0.1%. During this normalization period, the Fed is likely to stay put today. According to CME interest rate futures market, the probability of a rate hike in today's FOMC meeting is less than 5%, suggesting that investors expect the Fed to keep the same rate.

A more interesting thing to look at today's meeting is the Fed's forward guidance and also the new dot plot. There's a possibility that the Fed may tone down their hawkish outlook to calm down market participants and lower the forecast for the median federal funds rate. If this happens, it may trigger U.S. Dollar selloff as market is pricing a more gradual rate hike. The Fed likely would defer the interest rate hike to June or later in the year, and may opt to hike at a slower rate. The interest rate futures market as of March 16 is pricing in an 82% probability of at least one rate hike in 2016.

US Dollar Short-term Elliott Wave Chart
Larger Image

Technically, USD Index is trading in the bearish channel from last December. The Index is retesting the top of the channel on March 10 and got a strong rejection lower, which may reflect downside pressure.


For further information on how to find inflection areas to trade $EURUSD, USD Index, Indices and other USD pairs using Elliottwave and our unique trading method of 3-7-11, sign in today for the limited time only FREE 14 Day Trial to see our Hourly, 4 Hour, Daily and Weekly Technical Analysis.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment