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GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 0.4% Following More Weak Economic Report

Following another set of weak economic reports, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for first quarter US GDP sank 0.3 percentage points to 0.4%.


Latest forecast: 0.4 percent -- April 5, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent on April 1. After yesterday morning's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the manufacturing report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for real GDP growth declined from 0.7 percent to 0.4 percent due to declines in the forecasts for real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth. The forecast for real GDP growth remained at 0.4 percent after this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, as a slight decline in the forecast for real net exports was offset by a slight increase in the forecast of real equipment investment growth.


GDPNow History

GDPNow History


Kaleidoscope Eyes

Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart made a speech to the Rotary Club of Savannah on March 21. His speech was called Kaleidoscopic Context for Monetary Policy.

I commented on his speech with my take called Kaleidoscope Eyes.


Momentum Since Lockhart's Speech

Other than that, momentum for Fed rate hikes is looking exceptional.

 

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