• 19 hours Airlines Could Recover, But Crew Remain Elusive
  • 19 hours Meet The Man Behind The World's Most Exciting Oil Play
  • 2 days Crypto-Mining Immigration Could Be The Start Of A New Trend
  • 4 days Hawkish Fed Sends Gold Prices Crashing
  • 5 days Bezos Is Heading To Space This Sunday
  • 8 days El Salvador’s Surprise Bitcoin Move
  • 11 days Markets Unfazed As Inflation Hits 13-Year High
  • 12 days How the Token Economy is Disrupting Financial Markets
  • 14 days FBI Investigating 100 Types Of Ransomware Attacks
  • 16 days Fed Ends Corporate Credit Emergency Lending Program
  • 18 days AMC Becomes the Latest Winning Meme Stock After GameStop
  • 19 days The Real Reason Your 401k Has Been Lagging
  • 20 days China Lifts Cap On Births, Allows Three Children Per Couple
  • 22 days The Market Is Ripe For Another GameStop Saga
  • 25 days Senate Grills Big Banks Over Pandemic Opportunism
  • 26 days Cannabis Has A Major Cash Problem
  • 27 days Ransomware Netted Criminals $350M In 2020 Alone
  • 28 days Russia Is Taking On Google
  • 29 days Chinese Regulators Deal Another Big Blow To Bitcoin
  • 30 days Ohio Residents Brave Vaccine for Chance To Win $1M
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Inventories and Sales: How Bad Are They? Study in Pictures

In response to GDPNow Rises to 0.3% Following Dismal Retail Sales and Inventory Reports; Fed vs. Fed Update I received a nice email from reader Tibor.

Tibor writes "Hey Mish, Just wanted to thank you for being one of the sanest, if not sanest, economic skeptics out there. Most of the pundits on the bear side would bark at the moon for a fortnight about how corrupt the Atlanta fed update was this morning. Sales down, but GDPNow ticks up?! impossible! Scam! In contrast, you probably pegged the most reasonable explanation in the the 4th sentence of your post. Thanks for not being the typical econ-conspiracy blogger spewing BS to placate the simpletons. I hope you get credit for your measured critiques."

Thanks Tibor.

He was commenting on my thoughts: "I expected a dip to -0.3% because inventories and sales were both down. ... We have seen these kinds of results before, so this is not shocking. Most likely, the numbers were factored into preliminary reports and today's numbers were slightly better than expected."

Let's now take a look at a series of charts to see how dismal (or not) things are.


Total Business Sales

Total Business Sales


Manufacturers Sales

Manufacturers Sales


Retailer Sales

Retailer Sales


Merchant Wholesalers: Inventories to Sales Ratio

Merchant Wholesalers: Inventories to Sales Ratio


Total Business Sales Percent Change From Year Ago

Total Business Sales Percent Change From Year Ago


Total Business Sales Detail

Total Business Sales Detail


Possible Conclusions

  1. "Sufficient momentum for rate hikes as soon as April"
  2. It's different this time!
  3. One and Two
  4. We are in recession
  5. Don't worry, it's the weather

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment