• 259 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 260 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 261 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 661 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 666 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 668 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 671 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 671 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 672 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 674 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 674 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 678 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 678 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 679 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 681 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 682 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 685 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 686 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 686 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 688 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Massive Jump in New Home Sales, 17-Sigma Event

New home sales surprised in a massive way this morning, blowing out all estimates to the high side.

New home sales came in at 619,000 compared to a Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate of 523,000 at a seasonally adjusted annualized

Highlights

The new home sales report has sealed its reputation as the wildest set of data around. April's annualized rate came in at 619,000 which is not a misprint. This is the highest rate since January 2008 and dwarfs all readings of the recovery. February 2015's rate, way behind at 545,000, is the next highest rate this cycle. The data even include a very large 39,000 net upward revision to the two prior months, a gain that reflects annual revisions which are included in the data. The monthly 16.6 percent surge is not only far beyond expectations but is the biggest monthly gain since way back in January 1992.

The data also include a big jump in prices, up 7.8 percent in the month to a record median $321,100 while the year-on-year rate, which was negative in the March report, is at plus 9.7 percent year-on-year.

But the surge in sales is a negative for supply as supply relative to sales fell very sharply to 4.7 months from 5.5 months. The total number of new homes for sale was little changed, down 1,000 at 243,000.

Regional data show a more than 50 percent jump in the Northeast where however the number of sales relative to other regions is very low. The same is true of the Midwest where sales fell 4.8 percent in the month. The two main regions for new home sales both show outsized gains with the South up 15.8 percent and the West up 23.6 percent.

Year-on-year, total sales are suddenly up 23.8 percent, this at the same time that the median price is now well past the 6 percent rate where housing appreciation had been trending. Even though new home sales are volatile, which reflects the report's small sample sizes, the outlook for housing just got a big boost. Talk will build for a greater contribution from housing to overall growth. Watch for FHFA house price data on tomorrow's calendar where another month of solid appreciation is expected.


New Home Sales

New Home Sales


Sales Up Everywhere But Midwest

Sales Up Everywhere But Midwest


17-Sigma Event

ZeroHedge is a bit skeptical, noting the report is a 17 sigma event.

17-Sigma Event

This data is indicative of a hike, so much that one might wonder if the Fed had a leak to the commerce department report.

This is quite amazing to say the least.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment