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Paul Rejczak

Paul Rejczak

Writer, Sunshine Profits

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market…

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Stock Trading Alert: No Clear Short-Term Direction, Will It Continue Higher?

Stock Trading Alert originally published on August 29,  2016, 6:53 AM:


 

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.2% on Friday, as investors hesitated following economic data releases, Fed's Janet Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Summit. The S&P 500 index remains within a few-week-long consolidation following June - July rally. It is still relatively close to last week's new all-time high of 2,193.81. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,190-2,200. On the other hand, support level is at 2,160-2,170, marked by short-term local lows. The next support level remains at 2,150. Will the market continue higher? Or is this some kind of a topping pattern before downward reversal? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far:

S&P500 Futures Daily Chart
Larger Image

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data releases: Personal Income, Personal Spending, Core PCE Prices number at 8:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it fluctuates along its Friday's close. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,155-2,160, marked by Friday's local low. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,180-2,190, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

S&P500 Futures 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades along the level of 4,780. The nearest important level of resistance is at 4,800-4,820, marked by recent local highs. On the other hand, support level is at 4,750-4,760, as the 15-minute chart shows:

NASDAQ100 Futures 15-Minute Chart
Larger Image

Concluding, the broad stock market extended its short-term consolidation on Friday, as the S&P 500 index fluctuated along the level of 2,170. We still can see overbought conditions accompanied by negative technical divergences. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

 

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