The good news is:
• While all of the major averages were down last week there was no significant build up of new lows.
Short Term
In one week the market went from over bought to over sold.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished a run to 4 consecutive new all time highs on October 28. Since then it has fallen for 6 consecutive days, something it has not done since June 2005.
The chart below covers the past 2 years showing the DJIA in red and an indicator showing the percentage of the previous 6 trading days that have been up in blue. There are dashed red vertical lines drawn on the 1st trading day of each year. Prior to the period showing on this chart the last time the DJIA was down for 6 consecutive days was in 2001.
In the 2 previous occurrences of 6 consecutive down days prior to last week the DJIA consolidated for about a week. Following the 1st consolidation it fell further and following the 2nd consolidation it rose.
It would seem likely that we will not see much movement either way next week.
Intermediate term
The move off last summers low was very strong.
The chart below covers the past 3 years showing the Russell 2000 (R2K) in red with an indicator showing a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of the component issues of the R2K making new 6 week highs in green. Grey dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month the lines are red on the 1st trading day of the year.
In the recent rally the R2K did not quite reach its all time high of last May, but the new high indicator made a higher high in October than it did in May indicating more issues participated in the recent rally than were participating when the index made its all time high last May.
The next chart is similar to the one above except is shows the S&P 500 (SPX) and the new high indicator has been calculated from the component issues of the SPX. Over the past 3 years the indicator peaks have been progressively lower with each higher high, but not by much especially compared to how the indicator looked at the early May high.
Seasonality
In the tables below next week is defined as the week prior to the 2nd Friday in November during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.
OTC data covers the period from 1966 - 2002 and SPX data from 1954 - 2002 during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined beginning with 1963 for the OTC and 1953 for the SPX. The market traded 6 days a week prior to 1953 so that data is been omitted.
During all periods the market has been up about half of the time with modest gains.
Report for the week before the 2nd Friday during Nov
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.
| OTC Presidential Year 2 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1966-2 | 0.77% | 0.00% | 0.54% | 0.65% | 0.70% | 2.66% |
| 1970-2 | 0.26% | 0.96% | 0.86% | -0.34% | -1.33% | 0.41% |
| 1974-2 | -0.68% | 2.12% | 0.18% | 0.80% | -0.20% | 2.23% |
| 1978-2 | -0.36% | -1.96% | 0.14% | 0.79% | 0.84% | -0.54% |
| 1982-2 | -0.13% | 1.52% | 0.10% | 0.48% | 0.47% | 2.44% |
| 1986-2 | -0.28% | 0.37% | -0.03% | -0.88% | 0.16% | -0.66% |
| Avg | -0.24% | 0.60% | 0.25% | 0.17% | -0.01% | 0.78% |
| 1990-2 | 1.28% | -0.07% | -1.10% | -0.13% | 1.66% | 1.65% |
| 1994-2 | -0.49% | 0.69% | -0.04% | -0.37% | -0.30% | -0.51% |
| 1998-2 | 0.24% | 0.24% | -0.19% | -0.59% | -0.17% | -0.46% |
| 2002-2 | 2.63% | 0.33% | 1.27% | -2.98% | -1.27% | -0.01% |
| Avg | 0.92% | 0.30% | -0.01% | -1.02% | -0.02% | 0.17% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 2 1966 - 2002 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.33% | 0.47% | 0.17% | -0.26% | 0.06% | 0.72% |
| Win% | 50% | 78% | 60% | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2005 | ||||||
| Avg | -0.05% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.01% | 0.37% |
| Win% | 44% | 61% | 56% | 63% | 60% | 53% |
| SPX Presidential Year 2 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1954-2 | 0.95% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.87% | 0.21% | 2.52% |
| 1958-2 | 0.59% | 0.78% | 0.13% | -0.41% | 0.49% | 1.58% |
| 1962-2 | 1.04% | 0.00% | 0.62% | -0.66% | 0.79% | 1.78% |
| 1966-2 | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.81% | 0.63% | 0.06% | 1.39% |
| 1970-2 | 0.53% | 0.14% | 0.28% | -1.03% | -0.93% | -1.00% |
| 1974-2 | -1.08% | 2.78% | -0.48% | 0.62% | -0.40% | 1.43% |
| 1978-2 | -1.03% | -1.41% | 0.64% | -0.03% | 0.37% | -1.46% |
| 1982-2 | -1.21% | 1.84% | -1.30% | 0.43% | -1.57% | -1.82% |
| 1986-2 | 0.15% | 0.39% | -0.18% | -1.47% | 0.61% | -0.50% |
| Avg | -0.53% | 0.75% | -0.21% | -0.30% | -0.38% | -0.67% |
| 1990-2 | 0.88% | -0.94% | -1.80% | 0.52% | 1.99% | 0.65% |
| 1994-2 | 0.17% | 0.56% | -0.05% | -0.23% | -0.43% | 0.02% |
| 1998-2 | -0.95% | -0.17% | -0.65% | -0.25% | 0.67% | -1.34% |
| 2002-2 | 0.82% | 0.78% | 0.91% | -2.29% | -0.88% | -0.65% |
| Avg | 0.23% | 0.06% | -0.40% | -0.56% | 0.34% | -0.33% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 2 1954 - 2002 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.06% | 0.47% | -0.08% | -0.25% | 0.08% | 0.20% |
| Win% | 62% | 73% | 54% | 38% | 62% | 54% |
| SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2005 | ||||||
| Avg | -0.06% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.37% |
| Win% | 51% | 50% | 60% | 62% | 58% | 57% |
Conclusion
Last week the rally of the past few months ended going into what seasonally has been the strongest week of the year. I think it is likely that weakness will continue for another week or two.
I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday November 10 than they were on Friday November 3.
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Last weeks positive forecast based on the unbroken since 1930 run of seasonal strength was a miss.
