• 780 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 780 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 782 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,182 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,187 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,188 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,192 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,192 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,193 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,194 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,195 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,199 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,199 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,200 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,202 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,202 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,206 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,207 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,207 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,209 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Intermediate-Term Market Downtrend

Much of the rally in September and October may be the result of end-of-fiscal-year window dressing. It seems, many financial institutions were caught-off guard by the sustained rally and bought the slightest pullbacks. Consequently, with the fiscal year over, selling may accelerate.

The first chart below is an SPX daily chart. I suspect, the rally above 1,350 was almost entirely driven by panic buying, including short-covering, since the pullbacks became shallow. Also, above 1,350, short-term technical indicators were consistently severely overbought.

SPX has pulled-back to a minor congestion area in the low-1,360s, which is support. There are also support levels in the low-1,350s, around-1,340, and 1,326. I suspect, SPX will not rise much above 1,370 short-term, and a larger pullback may take place before the end of November.

The second chart is a Nasdaq daily chart. A double-top was created recently. The indicators suggest an intermediate-term downtrend has begun. First major support is around 2,300 and then 2,250. However, both SPX and Nasdaq may consolidate somewhat before moving lower.

The current cyclical bull market is the second longest in history without over a 9% correction. If SPX corrects 9% from the 1,390 high, it'll fall to 1,265, which is still above the summer lows. The possibility of a correction over the current intermediate-term downtrend should be taken into account.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment