Ashraf Laidi

CMC Markets

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Prolonged Risk Aversion Until Obamas Inauguration

  Published 15 January 2009 | viewed 3,869 times

  Prolonged risk aversion is expected to ensue until Tuesdays presidential inauguration brings in a temporary feel good rally. Having made their third failed attempt to…

• Zero-Bound Fed Breaks Dollar

  Published 16 December 2008 | viewed 3,884 times

  The Fed's shift towards a range of 0-0.25% in its fed funds target zero intensifies the yield assault to the dollar, leaving little chance for…

• Detroit Spoils Dollar Party

  Published 11 December 2008 | viewed 5,151 times

  It may be premature to call the recent currency developments a paradigm shift, but it is worth shedding light on these changes as the news…

• Fed's Quantitative Easing Extends Seasonal Reversals

  Published 25 November 2008 | viewed 5,021 times

  Today's latest liquidity drive from the Federal Reserve gives a fresh jolt to risk-seeking trades, extending my scenario of seasonal reversals in currency and commodity…

• Beware of Seasonal Forex Reversals

  Published 20 November 2008 | viewed 4,319 times

  Although currencies ended up adopting their usual path of following the swings in risk appetite, it's worth explaining Wednesday's earlier spikes in EURUSD and GBPUSD.…

• Consumers Further Erode Retail Payrolls

  Published 14 November 2008 | viewed 3,289 times

  The attached chart shows the deepening implications of falling retail sales on retail sector payrolls, highlighting the deteriorating role of the US consumer, especially as…

• Risk Aversion Fills Data Vacuum

  Published 11 November 2008 | viewed 4,283 times

  Although signs of easing credit strains are manifested in multi-year lows in interbank rates, the market turmoil has exasperated the already shaky cash situation of…

• Bank of England Plays Catch-up at Expense of Sterling

  Published 06 November 2008 | viewed 2,656 times

  The Bank of England's shocker 150-bp cut to 3.00% (lowest level since 1955) against expectations of 50-bp cut is the biggest rate cut since the…

• Elections, the Dollar, Stocks and the Economy

  Published 03 November 2008 | viewed 3,880 times

  Much has been written about the relationship between the partisan power in the White House and the performance of the stock market. Considerable amount of…

• Reflationary Trade Here to Stay

  Published 30 October 2008 | viewed 5,068 times

  The Fed's 50 bp-cut to 1.00%, adds to the 50-bps made less than a month ago, making the central bank in full pursuit of its…

• Pre-FOMC FX Strategy

  Published 29 October 2008 | viewed 3,620 times

  Fed to Remain More Creative Than Surprising The main question is whether today's anticipated Fed rate cut will succeed in maintaining the current boost to…

• Yen-Bound Flight of Least Resistance

  Published 24 October 2008 | viewed 4,002 times

  Sterling collapses by over 800 points (8 cents) to $1.5260, posting its biggest intraday decline since exchange rates became freely floated in 1971, reinforced by…

• USDJPY and Yield Curve Analysis

  Published 16 October 2008 | viewed 3,859 times

  Violent volatility maintains its daily routine of aggressive swings, as US equities close 5% higher after more than a 9% decline yesterday, dragging risk appetite…

• What Retail Layoffs are Telling Us

  Published 03 October 2008 | viewed 4,545 times

  September payrolls fell by 159K, worst decline since May 2007, while the unemployment rate held at 6.1%. Although unchanged, the unemployment rate is widely expected…

• ISM Won't Prevent More EUR, GBP Losses

  Published 01 October 2008 | viewed 3,929 times

  An important component in today's terrible August ISM report (plunging to a 6-year low of 43.5) is the tumbling prices paid component to 53.5 from…

• Implications of Gold's Rise Relative to Oil

  Published 18 September 2008 | viewed 4,878 times

  Over the past 8 weeks, we alerted clients that the gold/oil ratio would continue to recover from its July record lows as oil begins to…

• Risk Aversion Drives JPY and GBP in Opposite Ways

  Published 10 September 2008 | viewed 4,871 times

  Now that US equity indices have erased all of Monday's gains less than 24-hours after the US Treasury's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie, we…

• US Jobs Report and Relative FX Strengths

  Published 05 September 2008 | viewed 3,717 times

  The jump in the August unemployment rate to a new 5-year high of 6.1% from 5.7% leaves little doubt to currency traders that the USD…

• Secular Currency Performances

  Published 28 August 2008 | viewed 2,831 times

  The events of the past three weeks in foreign exchange markets continue to be dominated by prolonged dollar strength and a fierce bout of selling…

• GSEs' Impact on Foreign Inflows and Risk Appetite

  Published 14 July 2008 | viewed 2,958 times

  Almost 4 months to the day after the Fed backed the JP Morgan rescue of Bear Stearns, the Fed and the US Treasury intervene to…