Doug Noland

Prudent Bear

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Druckenmiller the Statesman

  Published 18 July 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Geopolitical risk erupts and a hedge fund titan speaks candidly. Hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller rightfully attained "legendary" stature after achieving a phenomenal 30-year track…

• 2014 vs. 2007

  Published 11 July 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Action at the "periphery of the periphery." "The job of an economist, among many other duties, is to put things into perspective. So, because I…

• The Moneyness of Risk Assets

  Published 04 July 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Dr. Yellen, you just condoned "Terminal Phase" excesses. I have liberally excerpted from Janet Yellen s July 2 speech to the International Monetary Fund: "Monetary…

• No Bubble?

  Published 27 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Fed hawks are beginning to make some noise. Earlier in the week BlackRock's Larry Fink commented on CNBC: "A Bubble is predicated on leverage." Fink…

• Sound or Unsound?

  Published 13 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Add meltdown in Iraq to the long list of geopolitical risks. As follow-up to last week's quarterly "flow of funds" analysis, I'll take a brief…

• Credit Allocation

  Published 06 June 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Signs of an upside dislocation... Total (financial and non-financial) Credit jumped $484bn during Q1 to a record $59.399 TN, or 347% of GDP. Although economic…

• He's Back

  Published 30 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  A synchronized melt-up in global risk markets. May 30 - MarketNews International (Brai Odion-Esene): "Former Bank of England official Adam Posen believes there is undue…

• How The Euro was (Really) Saved

  Published 23 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  The short squeeze was back. "To the astonishment of almost everyone in the room, Angela Merkel began to cry. 'Das ist nicht fair.' That is…

• Nervous Time

  Published 16 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Tepper and Summers offer valuable insight. I'll begin with a few of this week's notable market moves. The euro/yen declined another 82 bps, increasing its…

• (No) Conundrum 2.0

  Published 09 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Could things possibly be any more fascinating? Representative Kevin Brady: "I'll conclude with this. My main concern, having served on the committee in the early…

• Serial Booms and Busts

  Published 02 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  How long can the markets ignore Ukraine, Russia and China? After beginning 1987 near 104, the dollar index dropped almost 10% in nine months. From…

• Money and Credit and The Current Backdrop

  Published 02 May 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Originally posted April 27, 2013. Trouble brewing. Over the years, money and the "Moneyness" of Credit have remained focal points of my Macro Credit Analytical…

• Automatic Stabilizer?

  Published 19 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Yellen comforts New York - and the Bulls. "Fundamental to modern thinking on central banking is the idea that monetary policy is more effective when…

• Financial Stability

  Published 11 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Selling is starting to get serious. "Each Spring, thousands of government officials, journalists, civil society organizations, and invited participants from the academia and private sectors,…

• HFT, Rigged Markets and The Man

  Published 04 April 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Initial indications of greed giving way to fear. April 3 - Bloomberg (Silla Brush): "The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing futures markets to…

• QE, Uncertainty and CPI

  Published 28 March 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Equity market internals have turned increasingly unsettled. In last Wednesday's press conference, Janet Yellen upset the markets with her comment suggesting that the Fed might…

• April/May/June Dynamic?

  Published 21 March 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Putin takes Crimea, China devalues and Yellen has a shaky debut. Last week I posited that "Ukraine and China posed clear and present dangers to…

• A 'Truman Show' World

  Published 14 March 2014 | viewed 0 times

  The Ukraine and China pose clear and present danger to global markets. March 13 - Financial Times (Miles Johnson): "In the 'Truman Show', the late…

• Q4 2013 'Flow of Funds' and Geopolitical

  Published 07 March 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Ominous geopolitical meets exuberant markets. During Q4 2013, Total System Credit increased (nominal) $840bn to a record $58.991 TN, or 345% of GDP. On a…

• Bundesbankification

  Published 28 February 2014 | viewed 0 times

  Developments in China and the Ukraine weren't enough to restrain the exuberant bulls. For someone deeply engaged in monetary theory and policy, Thursday was special.…