Doug Noland

Prudent Bear

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Game Theory and Crowded Trades

  Published 13 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  It was, to say the least, another interesting week. JP Morgan restated its first quarter earnings, as the company's "London Whale" synthetic derivative loss jumped…

• Trying to Stay Focused on the Big Picture

  Published 07 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Having wrapped up my working holiday this week, my end-of-week writing schedule should now return to normal. It's certainly been an eventful few weeks. The…

• Pavlovian

  Published 08 June 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Global systemic stress has been gaining critical momentum, and markets this week were heartened that global policymakers were in the process of mustering meaningful responses.…

• And This Week a Turn for the Worse

  Published 01 June 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Swiss two-year yields ended the week at negative 48 bps. Two-year yields were also negative in Denmark (-21 bps) and traded slightly negative for much…

• Here Comes the Policy Response!

  Published 25 May 2012 | viewed 0 times

  For more than a year now, I have posited the thesis that unstable global finance is highly vulnerable to a problematic bout of de-risking and…

• The Jig is Up

  Published 18 May 2012 | viewed 0 times

  May 18 - Wall Street Journal (Monica Langley): "J.P. Morgan & Co. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer James Dimon had just committed the most expensive…

• Risk Off Gains a Foothold

  Published 11 May 2012 | viewed 0 times

  There were important developments this week in the realm of market risk dynamics, developments that increased the likelihood that problematic de-risking/de-leveraging dynamics have begun to…

• Revenge of Risk Off?

  Published 05 May 2012 | viewed 0 times

  In respect for economic history and brilliant but long-dead monetary thinkers, some years back I assigned the "inflationist" label to the outspoken Keynesians. Paul Krugman…

• The Many Facets of Roro

  Published 28 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

  April 21 - Financial Times (Bryce Elder): "Markets are broken. Accepted investment wisdom has been overturned and the basic tenets of value and diversification no…

• An Eye on France, Italy and the Speculators

  Published 21 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I wanted to dive a little deeper into John Taylor's March 29, 2012, Wall Street Journal op-ed, "The Dangers of an Interventionist Fed - A…

• All Eyes on Spain

  Published 14 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

  "To talk about a bailout for Spain at the moment makes no sense. Spain is not going to be rescued. It's not possible to rescue…

• Cracks in Europe

  Published 06 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

  There were important developments this week on the liquidity analysis front. Tuesday's release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (March 13 meeting) threw…

• Financial Repression?

  Published 31 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  S&P500 recorded a total return for the quarter of 12.59%. The S&P 400 Mid-caps returned 13.50%. Apple gained 48%. The Morgan Stanley High Tech index…

• Interesting Juncture

  Published 23 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Macro Credit, Bubble and speculative market dynamics analysis has reached another "Interesting Juncture." There are a few premises that will be tested over the coming…

• Flow of Funds and More

  Published 17 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The U.S. system enjoyed respectable Credit growth during 2011's fourth quarter. Total Credit Market Debt Outstanding (non-financial and financial) increased $306bn during the quarter to…

• Now, Sterilized QE?

  Published 09 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  For such a tiny economy, Greece has had quite an impact. Today's Greek bond swap marks the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history - the…

• Financial Sphere Weak Links

  Published 03 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth jumped to 3.0% in the fourth quarter, up sharply from Q3's 1.8%, Q2's 1.3% and Q1's 0.4%. And while current…

• Contemporary Monetary Analysis

  Published 25 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  February 21 - CNBC (John Carney): "The Washington Post ran a long and well-wrought article on Modern Monetary Theory over the weekend. The piece, by…

• A New Bull Market?

  Published 18 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  This week I was compelled to respond to a vicious rumor that I'd turned bullish. I cannot refute that the market backdrop is today constructive…

• Price Instability

  Published 03 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Chairman Bernanke was forthcoming yesterday when he stated that loose monetary policy distorts the economy and leads to inflationary pressures. I'll contend that the world…