Doug Noland

Prudent Bear

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Z1 and the Doves

  Published 27 September 2013 | viewed 0 times

  With taper worries out of the way for now, the markets will watch to see if Washington can avoid a government shutdown. From the Federal…

• Financial Conditions

  Published 20 September 2013 | viewed 0 times

  The Fed really pushed the envelope too far this time. The Federal Reserve shocked the markets Wednesday with its decision to furlough QE "tapering." The…

• Blinder, Summers and Monetary Policy

  Published 13 September 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Global equities were bought while precious metals and commodities were sold. "Next Sunday marks the fifth anniversary of the fateful day that investment bank Lehman…

• Difficult Decisions Ahead

  Published 06 September 2013 | viewed 0 times

  The repricing of global bonds continued, despite escalating tensions in Syria and weak payroll data. The latest G20 meeting was dominated by deep divisions over…

• Weak Links and Transmission Mechanisms

  Published 30 August 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Global markets are turning more unsettled, and I suspect it has more to do with EM and the hedge funds than it does Syria. It…

• All the Makings for a Major Top

  Published 23 August 2013 | viewed 0 times

  An unfolding EM crisis, higher Treasury yields, a short squeeze and various market mayhem. The thesis has been that unconstrained global Credit inherently fuels serial…

• Introducing 'Government Finance Quasi-Capitalism'

  Published 17 August 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Bond yields shoot to two-year highs and equities take notice. This week's CBB evolved from notes prepared for a presentation I was to give. Instead,…

• The One-Year Anniversary of 'Do Whatever it Takes'

  Published 26 July 2013 | viewed 0 times

  The S&P might have been unchanged but many individual stocks were wild. Mario Draghi's "ad-libbed" comments one year ago (July 26, 2012) altered the course…

• Inflationphobia

  Published 19 July 2013 | viewed 0 times

  The melt-up continues. Chairman Bernanke last week buttressed global markets with his "If financial conditions were to tighten to the extent that they jeopardized the…

• Bernanke's Comment

  Published 12 July 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Somehow the Fed has succeeded in making unstable global markets even more so. I read with keen interest chairman Bernanke's paper "The First 100 Years…

• Mispricing Risk

  Published 05 July 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Bonds taken out to the woodshed, again. U.S. bonds were crushed Friday on the back of stronger-than-expected payroll data. Long-bond yields jumped 21 bps to…

• Uninsurable Risks

  Published 28 June 2013 | viewed 0 times

  An extraordinarily unsettled quarter ends on a tenuous up note. June 24 - Financial Times (Alistair Gray and Pilita Clark): "Insurers have issued a rare…

• Latent Market Bubble Risks

  Published 21 June 2013 | viewed 0 times

  It was a rout: EM, Treasuries, municipal bonds, MBS, commodities and even some stocks. The hours leading up to Wednesday's FOMC statement and Bernanke press…

• The King of EM

  Published 14 June 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Global de-risking and de-leveraging have gained important momentum. No respectable "flow of funds" analysis would be complete without examining "Rest of World" (ROW) data. I'll…

• Twenty-Year Anniversary of Market Backstops

  Published 07 June 2013 | viewed 0 times

  The global government finance Bubble has seen at least its second crack develop. The Q1 2013 Z.1 "Flow of Funds" was notable for the surprising…

• It's Going to be Another Interesting Summer

  Published 31 May 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Global de-risking/de-leveraging starts to gain some traction. Legendary Fed Chairman Paul Volcker spoke again this week before the New York Economics Club. I've included large…

• Kuroda's Gambit

  Published 24 May 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Air leaks out of Japanese stocks and bonds and global Bubbles suddenly appear more vulnerable. For centuries, economic thinkers have grappled with money and Credit.…

• Financial Euphoria

  Published 17 May 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Tepper stokes the melt-up. "I am definitely bullish. The budget deficit is shrinking massively. Guys who are short, they better have a shovel to get…

• Thoughts on the Electronic Printing Press

  Published 10 May 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Indicators of serious market excess abound. The yen was hit for 2.6% this week, with the dollar/yen breaking above 100 to the highest level since…

• Too Much Asset Inflation

  Published 03 May 2013 | viewed 0 times

  Stock prices surge to record highs, while Credit market risk premiums collapse to multiyear lows. We're now well into the fifth year of unprecedented monetary…