Mike Shedlock

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Inflation Expectations Plunge: What, Me Worry?

  Published 10 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Fed chair Janet Yellen keeps repeating the mantra "inflation expectations are well anchored". They're not, and I can prove it with a pair of chart…

• Recession Odds From Rosenberg

  Published 08 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  David Rosenberg, chief economist at money-management firm Gluskin Sheff & Associates, went way out on a limb today. Even though oil broke $30 to the…

• Core Employment (Age 25-54) Still Below January 2000 Level, 3 Million Below 2007

  Published 05 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  With the mainstream media going gaga over the headline unemployment rate of 4.9%, let's put a spotlight on actual employment with a focus on those…

• Recession has Arrived; Factory Orders Decline 2.9%, Inventories Rise

  Published 04 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Even though economists see a mere 20% chance of recession in 2016, I am increasingly confident a recession began in December 2015. It was another…

• Currency Wars and a Job Gain Recession?

  Published 04 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  I am entertaining the notion of a "Job Gain Recession". A chart of year-over-year nonfarm employment shows that's nearly what happened in the 1970 and…

• Chicago on Brink of Bond Market Shutoff: Tax-Exempt Yield Hits Stunning 8.50%

  Published 04 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Verge of a Bond Market Shutoff The Chicago Board of Education is on the verge of a bond market shutoff. On January 27, the CBOE…

• Like Lemmings Over a Cliff: Fed to Test Negative Interest Rates

  Published 04 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Financial Repression Lemmings Low and negative rates have not done a damn thing for the Eurozone, Switzerland, Japan, or any other country that's implemented them.…

• Non-Manufacturing ISM Cracks Appear: 8 of 18 Industries in Contraction

  Published 03 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  NMI Cracks Appear The non-manufacturing (services) ISM is still growing but prices and new export orders both plunged into contraction. Moreover, 8 out of 18…

• Portion of US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts

  Published 03 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Inversion! Curve Watchers' Anonymous has had its eyes on the yield curve in expectation that portions of the curve would invert. A small inversion did…

• Past Due! Illinois Vendors Furious as Unpaid Bills Top $10 Billion

  Published 02 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Past Due Illinois has not had a budget for 8 months and counting. Unpaid bills pile up having now reached a record $10 billion to…

• 'Blue Chip' Optimism vs. GDPNow 1.2% 2016 Initial Q1 Forecast; Strengths and Weaknesses of GDPNow

  Published 01 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  "Blue Chip" Optimism The Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts off with an anemic 1.2% whimper. "The initial GDPNow model forecast…

• ISM Negative 4th Month, Employment Shows Significant Declines

  Published 01 February 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Manufacturing in January continues its dismal track record with the latest ISM reading. Econoday reports ... Employment sank the ISM index in January which could…

• BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7%; QnA: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming?

  Published 29 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The BEA "Advance GDP" estimate for 4th quarter came in today at +0.7% vs. an Econoday Consensus Estimate of 0.9%. Consumer spending is the central…

• Fed 'Workhorse' Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?

  Published 28 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Of all the ridiculous opinions as to why the US is not about to enter a recession, the Fed's "Workhorse" Model is at the top…

• Oil Inventory Hits 'Levels Not Seen in 80 Years'; Crude Jumps on News Russia May Cooperate with OPEC

  Published 27 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  "Levels Not Seen in 80 Years" The supply glut in oil storage continues. Crude inventories hit new all-time highs this past week. The above charts…

• New Home Sales Surge but Prices Down Sharply; Prices Have Room to Fall; Is Everybody In?

  Published 27 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  December new home sales surged well over the high end Econoday estimate. The outlook for the housing sector just got a boost from a sharp…

• Retail Sales vs. Consumer Confidence; Unwarranted Fed Faith in Wrong Surveys

  Published 26 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Conference Board Consumer Survey The consumer conference board does a paper survey every month on consumer confidence. The board's technical notes say (emphasis mine) "The…

• 'Temporary' Capital Controls Coming to China?

  Published 26 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Massive Reserve Hemorrhage China hemorrhaged $663 billion of its reserves since June 2014 in a misguided attempt to prop up the yaun. Once the biggest…

• Dallas Fed Region Activity Plunges to Lowest Reading Since 2009; Production Collapsed

  Published 25 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Those expecting a bounce in manufacturing following an alleged improvement in the Philadelphia Region were mistaken. In Philadelphia, all that really happened was that things…

• Arrogant Trump: 'I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters'

  Published 24 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  At an Iowa rally earlier today, Donald Trump made the arrogant claim "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and…