Mike Shedlock

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Four or Five Rate Hikes in 2016? Really?

  Published 07 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  I am quite amused by the parade of Fed governors and presidents still toting the Yellen line that the Fed will hike three to five…

• Another 2% Yuan Devaluation Coming Up? What Are the Risks? Explaining Chinese Capital Flight

  Published 06 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Another Yuan Devaluation Coming Up? Currency trends suggest another yuan devaluation is coming up. Specifically, the gap between the mainland China yuan (renminbi) to the…

• ISM a Leading Indicator of Jobs? Why 2016 Will Shock to the Downside!

  Published 06 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  ISM a Leading Indicator of Jobs? I expect monthly jobs reports in 2016 will shock to the downside. Before I list all the reasons, here's…

• December US New Car Sales 'Down, Exceptionally Weak' Says Bloomberg; WSJ Says Up and Strong

  Published 05 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Domestic Car Sales Cap Record Year With Up (and Down) Month US car sales are going to have a record year in 2015, clearly one…

• Diving Into the Revisions: Construction Spending Revised Lower 7 Consecutive Months! 2015 GDP Will Decline vs. Estimates: By How Much?

  Published 05 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Understanding the Construction Revisions Yesterday I commented Government "Processing Error" Sinks Housing Reports for Entire Year. In that article, I stated 2015 GDP would be…

• Government 'Processing Error' Sinks Housing Reports for Entire Year; Where to From Here?

  Published 04 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Huge "Processing Error" in Government Housing Data When I saw some of the upwardly revised GDP estimates in 2015 I thought they were too good…

• Yuan Movements Highlight China's Attempt to Halt 10th Month of Export Contraction; Major Currency War Coming Up?

  Published 04 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Chinese manufacturers see further deterioration in business conditions, down 10 consecutive months as noted in the latest Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI release. Operating conditions…

• Blaming Others: Reflections on 'The Big Short'

  Published 03 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Reflections on "The Big Short" I have not yet seen "The Big Short" movie. Everyone tells me it was excellent. I intend to see it,…

• Even-Handed Beheadings in Saudi Arabia; Friends Must Be Friends

  Published 02 January 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Saudi Arabia executed 47 people today in the biggest mass execution since 1980. Those executed include Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent Shi'ite Muslim cleric. Some…

• Chicago PMI Crashes, New Orders and Backlogs Plunge to May 2009 Level; Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

  Published 31 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  The Unexpected Strikes Chicago Again It was another disastrous month for the Chicago PMI. Economists expected a bounce back from last month's unexpected dip into…

• Pending Home Sales Decline 0.9%, Well Below Lowest Estimate; About that 'Know Before You Owe' Theory

  Published 30 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Today the NAR released the Pending Home Sales Index, a measure of expected sales on existing homes. The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for a 0.5%…

• Checking Back In Regarding a 'Sure Thing'

  Published 29 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Several readers sent emails prior to the Fed hike on December 16 that the stock market would collapse immediately following a rate hike. I commented…

• Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now! Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames; Italy's 5-Star Movement to Challenge Renzi

  Published 29 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames The Italian economy is growing, albeit barely. But Italy is still saddled with massive amounts of debt. Citizens are…

• Misguided Plans to Fix the Fed Part 1: Bernie Sanders

  Published 28 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Starting with a recent op-ed in the New York Times by Bernie Sanders, let's take a look at various proposals floating around to fix the…

• More Abenomics Failures: Retail Sales and Factory Output Contract, Businesses Reject Wage Hike Plea; Fine-Tuning a la Buiter

  Published 28 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Complete Failure of Abenomics Abenomics is back in the spotlight tonight. Results show a complete failure on three fronts: retail sales are down, factory output…

• Death Watch Illinois: Despite Massive Stock Market Rally, Illinois Pension Liabilities Go Up, and Up, and Up

  Published 27 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Illinois Pension Problems Mount Illinois' unfunded liabilities have risen ten out of the last eleven years. The only exception was 2011. This was despite massive…

• Economic Illusions vs. Reality; Helicopter Drop, What Else?

  Published 26 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Without providing a link, ZeroHedge posted some comments today regarding "Helicopter Drop Theory" by Willem Buiter, Citibank's Chief Economist. Willem Buiter on Failure of Monetary…

• Fed a Creature of Financial Markets; The Draghi PUT; Global Crisis Coming Up

  Published 25 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Creature of Financial Markets Stephen Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's chief economist, blasts the Greenspan Fed, the Bernanke Fed, and…

• Afghanistan: Another Broken Obama Promise; Taliban Poised to Retake Sangin; Money Trail Shows Billions of Fraud; Mish 5-Point Solution

  Published 23 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  A resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan highlights another miserable failure of the Obama administration as well as another broken promise. Taliban Poised to Retake…

• Existing Home Sales Plunge 10.5%, NAR Blames 'Know Before You Owe'; What's the Excuse for Last Month?

  Published 22 December 2015 | viewed 0 times

  Existing homes sales plunged 10.5% this month which the NAR attributes to an initiative called "Know Before You Owe". Economists, apparently unaware of "Know Before…