Mike Shedlock

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Deeper and Deeper in the Hole: Treasury Receipts Up 1%, Spending Up 5%

  Published 16 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  For the first time since 2009, US Deficit Spending On the Rise. Importantly, receipts are up only 1%, but government spending is up 5%. The…

• GDPNow Forecast Dips to 1.9%, Nowcast Rises Slightly to 2.3%

  Published 15 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  It was not at all obvious how today's allegedly "solid" retail sales report would affect third quarter GDP estimates. As I have pointed out before,…

• Import and Export Prices Tick Up, Econoday Robot Claims Progress

  Published 13 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Import prices are up 0.1% matching the Econoday Consensus estimate in an unusually wide range of estimates from  -0.3% to +0.4%. Export prices rose 0.3%…

• French Prime Minister Argues for United States of Europe, with Its Own Military: Problems with Glue

  Published 12 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, wants to transform the EU into the United States of Europe, complete with its own European defense force. Curiously, Valls…

• Article 50 Perfectly Timed

  Published 09 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Labour spin doctor, Alastair Campbell Slammed the Prime Minister for Revealing the Article 50 Timing. Others have done the same. Timing of the article 50…

• Inventory Crisis: Can Parrots Read Charts?

  Published 08 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The Econoday parrot is squawking about tight inventory management again today. This follows commerce news that month-over-month wholesale trade inventories fell 0.2%. Let's investigate. Highlights…

• Stock Buybacks Fueling the Stock Market? By How Much?

  Published 06 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Here's the question of the day: are corporate stock buybacks fueling the stock market? Let's look at a couple of charts and a news report…

• Markit vs. ISM Services: Markit Economist Sticks with 1% Third Quarter GDP Estimate

  Published 05 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  On many days there are no economic reports. On some days, like today, there are many reports. Rather than parrot mainstream media, I like to…

• Pension Bond 'Halloween' Madness: Alaska to Borrow Money from Asia at 4%, Hoping for 8% Returns

  Published 04 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  At or near the peak of every stock market, things get crazier and crazier. Toggle bonds where interest is paid, not in cash but with…

• Systemic Risk: Deutsche Bank #1 at $100 Billion (BNP Paribas 2nd, Societe Generale 3rd)

  Published 03 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Inquiring minds may be interested in a cornucopia of relevant numbers on Deutsche Bank including market cap, leverage, capitalization, deposits, liquidity, derivatives multiple ways, and…

• Six Current or Former Deutsche Bank Managers Charged with Fraud Related to Monte dei Paschi Derivatives

  Published 01 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Deutsche bank shares recovered from a plunge to all-time record lows on Friday on a "save the day" news leak that the US department of…

• Real GDI Provides Strong Recession Warning

  Published 01 October 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Yesterday the BEA released its Third Estimate for Second Quarter GDP. The third (final) estimate bumped up the prior estimate from 1.1% to 1.4%. The…

• Heavy Truck Sales vs. GDP: Sales Plunged 29% in August from Year Ago

  Published 29 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  There's an interesting correlation between heavy truck sales, GDP, and the S&P 500. If the relationship holds, it spells bad new for the already weakening…

• Markit Chief Economist on Services Flash PMI: 'Economy Growing Around 1% Again in 3rd Quarter'

  Published 28 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Estimates for third quarter GDP have generally been falling fast. Both GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast are down nearly a full percentage points from their…

• Draghi Increases Risk of Global Trade Collapse With Brexit Tough Talk

  Published 27 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The ECB has enough on its hands already: Collapsing Italian banks, a Deutsche Bank derivatives mess, massive Target2 imbalances, and the rise of eurosceptics like…

• New Home Sales Decline 7.6%, Median Price Down 3.1%: 'Very Positive' Says Econoday

  Published 26 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  New home sales fell 7.6% in August to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 609,000 units. However, economists were unusually pessimistic this month as…

• Merkel Says No Aid for Deutsche Bank; Depositor Bail-In Coming Up?

  Published 24 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  The €72 trillion (notional) derivatives mess known as Deutsche Bank remains under severe pressure. It's market cap is $17.43 billion. It has no earnings and…

• GDP Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% for 3rd Quarter, 1.22% for 4th Quarter

  Published 23 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  GDP estimates for third and fourth quarter are now in a free-fall. Last Friday the FRBNY Nowcast was in a blackout period because of the…

• Most Dangerous Person On the Planet Today: Hillary Clinton

  Published 23 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  On Monday, Hillary Clinton accused Donald Trump of giving "aid and comfort" to Islamic terrorists, and that terrorists use his rhetoric to recruit fighters. On…

• Existing Home Sales Sink Second Month: NAR, Economists Surprised

  Published 22 September 2016 | viewed 0 times

  Surprise, surprise. Existing home sales declined 0.9% in August following a revised lower 3.4% drop in July. This will likely take a few ticks off…