Tony Pallotta

Contributor since: 07 Mar 2011

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• Sentiment Surveys Or Margin Debt Who Is Smarter?

  Published 16 June 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The one and only data point that has given the bears pause is the extremely bearish sentiment readings. As an example the AAII survey recorded…

• Where Is The Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It

  Published 12 June 2011 | viewed 0 times

  "The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision." - Helen Keller Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious…

• Credit Markets Diverging From Equities (again)

  Published 05 June 2011 | viewed 0 times

  "Don't criticize what you don't understand, son. You never walked in that man's shoes." - Elvis Presley In prior posts I discussed how the equity…

• CME Lowers Treasury Margins, Signals Shift In Market Direction

  Published 05 June 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The CME has been busy the past few months "adjusting" margins. I emphasize adjusting because I suspect it is not in the interest of protecting…

• Equities And Treasuries Forecasting Past Recessions

  Published 26 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  One thing the 2007 recession taught us is how horrible the equity market was at forecasting economic contraction. The S&P 500 peaked in October 2007,…

• Q1 2011 GDP Revision

  Published 26 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The first of two revisions for Q1 2011 Real GDP came in unchanged at 1.8%. Internally though this report is rather concerning. In a previous…

• Bank Earnings Rise In Q1 2011

  Published 24 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  On Tuesday the FDIC announced that bank earnings in Q1 2011 are improving, up 66.5% from Q1 2010. In fact bank earnings are back to…

• Summary Of Key Markets And Indicators

  Published 22 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I posted a few charts this week showing some extreme levels and or divergences and wanted to combine them into one follow up post. The…

• Volatility Skew Update

  Published 21 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I still am very intrigued by the volatility skew. In theory the implied volatility is distributed uniformly across various option strike prices. As investors become…

• Corporate Bond Spreads Match 2007 Market Highs

  Published 18 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Corporate bond spreads or the difference between investment grade (Aaa rated) and high yield (Bbb rated) are currently 80 basis points. They last reached these…

• Q2 Economic Contraction Highly Probable

  Published 15 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Recently I have been discussing the possibility that the US economy is in fact in a period of contraction. I want to revisit that call…

• Housing And Economic Growth

  Published 09 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Housing as a percent of GDP peaked in 1980 at 19%. In 2005 as the housing bubble was set to pop it represented 18.5%. Today…

• April And The US Economy

  Published 06 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Something happened in April that crippled the US economy. First it was the reports from four regional Fed manufacturing surveys showing a sharp slowdown in…

• Domestic Economic Headwinds

  Published 02 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  If you watched the move Inside Job then you realized as it ended that we were in fact living the sequel. The movie is far…

• Inflation Expectations

  Published 26 April 2011 | viewed 0 times

  One way to determine inflation expectations is to take the treasury or nominal yield (not inflation adjusted) and subtract the TIPS or real yield (inflation…

• Beyond The VIX

  Published 20 April 2011 | viewed 0 times

  I have traded options for a number of years and fully understand the "greeks" as should any active options trader. When you understand options you…

• JP Morgan Q1 2011 Earnings

  Published 13 April 2011 | viewed 0 times

  On the headline JP Morgan (JPM) beat with $1.28 versus estimates of $1.15 on EPS. Comparing Q1 2011 to Q1 2010 net revenues is down…

• 2008 Was The Preview To The 2011 Blockbuster

  Published 11 April 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The world is evolving a lot faster than I suspect most realize. The Fed has created the aura of a V shaped global recovery in…

• The Falling US Dollar

  Published 05 April 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Below is a monthly chart of the USD index (DXY) since 2000. In that period of time it has died a slow death down 37%.…

• Housing Double Dip and Economic Growth

  Published 23 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Economic data continues to reinforce the reality that a housing double dip has in fact begun. Were it not for the 2010 tax credits there…