• 96 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 101 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 103 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 106 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 106 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 107 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 109 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 109 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 113 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 113 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 114 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 116 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 117 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 120 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 121 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 121 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 123 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 124 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 127 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 128 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
Another Strong Jobs Report, But Is It Enough?

Another Strong Jobs Report, But Is It Enough?

Just released, the February jobs…

Don’t Be Fooled By Musk’s Twitter Performance

Don’t Be Fooled By Musk’s Twitter Performance

Earlier this month, Musk informed…

Is The Dollar Too Strong?

Is The Dollar Too Strong?

The U.S. dollar has been…

Damir Kaletovic

Damir Kaletovic

Writer, Safehaven.com

Damir Kaletovic is an award-winning investigative journalist, documentary filmmaker and expert on Southeastern Europe whose work appears on behalf of Safehaven.com.

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Economy

40% Of Americans Think A Recession Is Looming

Recession

Despite the fact that the American economy is going strong, with high GDP growth and the lowest level of employment in 40 years, a survey from Bankrate. com shows that nearly 40 percent of Americans believe the next recession is already here or awaits us in the next 12 months.  So, why do experts says the economy is good, if not excellent, when the Average Joe has an entirely different sentiment?

Indeed, the BankRate survey noted that 88 percent of "experts" say the economy is "good," and 11 percent even describe it as "excellent. 

(Click to enlarge)

Source: bankrate.com

The disconnect between the two groups is difficult to understand at a time when the U.S. economy has achieved its longest growth record without recession. In fact, we’re looking at a 10-year growth spurt. In other words, 121 months of straight growth

(Click to enlarge)

Source: CNBC

Q1 GDP growth was 3.1 percent--topping last year’s 2.9 percent. For the last few months, the unemployment rate has stood at 3.6 percent, marking its lowest level in four decades. 

Still, 39 percent of Americans say the economy is “not so good”.

Part of the reason for the disconnect may be simply psychological: Something’s got to give when things are plugging along for 10 years without a hitch. Many Americans may simply be waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

Recent history has shown us that good times never last forever. Our generations have witnessed several cycles of expansion and recession. In the past 20 years, there have been two recessions. Statistically speaking, then, we’re due for one soon.   

Related: The $250 Trillion Global Debt Bubble Is About To Burst

The last recession hasn’t been forgotten. Fears linger. So does the knowledge that after the last recession, more than six million Americans had been out of work longer than six months.

But the disconnect also comes from other economic data that belies GDP and unemployment figures: Only 35 percent of average consumers have a minimum of 3-5 months of emergency savings. In other words, times might be good, but few have a safety net.  

“If you haven’t had a raise in a few years, if you’re still living paycheck-to-paycheck not making any headway, it’s tough to feel like the economy is doing great. The unemployment is the lowest in 50 years – doesn’t mean that everybody’s got a job, doesn’t mean that everybody’s doing great,” says Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the start of the year said he doesn’t think a recession will hit in 2019, but he is concerned about slowing global growth in places such as China and Europe.

U.S. GDP growth--despite the strong showing--remains a cause for concern. One of the key tools for tracking it is the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, which shows Q2 coming in at 1.5 percent--a far lower gain than Q1. 

And if you’re watching Wall Street as your barometer, it’s hard to get a clear picture. While half of Wall Street might not be worried about a recession, many are worried about downside risks, particularly with corporations suggesting they won’t meet Wall Street earnings estimates the next time around. 

By Damir Kaletovic for SafeHaven.com

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment