• 21 hours What New Economic Data Reveals About Gold's Trajectory
  • 2 days The Lucrative New Tech Hijacking Your Privacy
  • 2 days The Biggest Loser In The China-U.S. Tariff Tit-For-Tat
  • 3 days Trade War Takes Its Toll On Shipping
  • 5 days Is $90 Oil Possible? An Interview With Jay Park
  • 6 days Billions Of Dollars Are Flooding Into The Flying Taxi Space
  • 6 days Is This The Most Important Energy Project Of 2020?
  • 7 days Startups Are Dying To Give You A Better Death
  • 7 days U.S. Restaurants Are Struggling With Rising Labor Costs
  • 8 days The Banking Bonanza Is Just Getting Started
  • 8 days How The Trade War Ceasefire Will Impact The Energy Industry
  • 9 days Who Is The Most Dangerous Person On The Internet?
  • 9 days SoftBank Sees First Quarterly Loss In 14 Years
  • 11 days Prepare For An Oil Glut In 2020
  • 12 days Why A Strong Yuan Is A Promising Sign For The Trade War
  • 13 days What Would You Sacrifice For A Debt-Free Life?
  • 13 days Shareholders Urge Major Bank To Stop Funding Fossil Fuel Companies
  • 13 days Tariffs Are Causing A Slowdown In U.S. Manufacturing
  • 14 days The Great Silicon Valley Migration Has Begun
  • 14 days 3 Oil Stocks Paying Out Promising Dividends In 2020
Trade War Takes Its Toll On Shipping

Trade War Takes Its Toll On Shipping

The trade war is far…

Millennials' Not-So-Healthy Health Craze

Millennials' Not-So-Healthy Health Craze

Last month, a study conducted…

Billions Of Dollars Are Flooding Into The Flying Taxi Space

Billions Of Dollars Are Flooding Into The Flying Taxi Space

Industry watchers and proponents see…

Fred Dunkley

Fred Dunkley

Writer, Safehaven.com

Fred Dunkley is a tech analyst, writer, and seasoned investor. Fred has years of experience covering global markets and geopolitics. 

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. News
  3. Breaking News

Gamblers Are Betting Big On Trump’s Impeachment

Trump Impeachment

“You are fired” was a famous and somewhat trademarked catchphrase of Trump’s as the host of the Apprentice reality show. The firing trend continued once he became president, and now it’s showing signs of backfiring. And his presidential fate is now the stuff of online betting. 

Currently, there is a 77 percent chance of him getting impeached, according to the latest sentiment on the popular betting website PredictIt.

Investors use prediction markets to get a real-time barometer on the likelihood of certain political or any other events. However, in the last couple of years, Trump and his presidency have been the key focus of the prediction tool.

The odds of Trump's impeachment during his first term by the US House of Representatives spiked as the Democrat's impeachment inquiry uncovered new details on the Ukraine scandal.

Bets for a "yes" outcome first soared over $0.50 on the dollar in late September after news of the Ukraine scandal first broke and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry. 

Hundreds of thousands of trades are made daily in the impeachment market, up from tens of thousands per day prior to the Ukraine scandal.

Apparently, the breaking point was the Wednesday testimony of US acting Ukraine ambassador Bill Taylor, who detailed how the Trump administration explicitly tied aid for Ukraine to investigations into the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Biden family.

However, some other odds are in Trump’s favor, including the fact that only 56 percent of people think that he will be impeached by the end of the year. 

In addition, traders on the platform currently see only an 18-percent chance of the Senate convicting him in his first term.

So far, PredictIt correctly anticipated several political events, including that the GOP would win the Senate and Democrats would reclaim the House in 2018 midterms, and that Boris Johnson would lead Britain’s Conservative Party. 

However, the website was wrong on some other major events, including the outcome of the Brexit vote or even the outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections.

Related: The Free Money Bubble Is About To Burst

Still, even though betting on political events can be considered purely as entertainment, quite a few big companies are using PredictIt to scope out the political landscape before making investment recommendations and decisions. 

And betting houses aren’t the only ones placing odds on Trump and his administration. It was reported last year that even White House staffers had run an office game by placing odds on who would be the next one out the door. 

Considering that Trump fired some 40 high-level officials, very few in person but on social media, there is a high probability that some placed bets against themselves. 

Since taking over the Presidency, turnover within the most senior level of White House staff members hit 83 percent, according to nonprofit public policy organization Brookings

As a matter of fact, Trump has had more high-level Cabinet turnover than presidents Obama, Clinton, Reagan, and both President Bushs’ combined. 

Currently, Trump advisors are predicting that Mick Mulvaney, acting White House Chief of Staff and nominal director of the Office of Management and Budget, will be fired as soon as the impeachment trial is over.

By Fred Dunkley for Safehaven.com 

More Top Reads From Safehaven.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment