• 338 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 339 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 340 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 740 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 745 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 747 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 750 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 750 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 751 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 753 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 753 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 757 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 757 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 758 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 760 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 761 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 764 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 765 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 765 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 767 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Market Recap: New High Ahead But Could Be a Red Week the Next Week

  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are OVERBOUGHT Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence.
1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18)
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming.
BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246.
*0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead.
BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high.
CONCLUSION  

SPY SETUP ENTRY
DATE
STOP
LOSS
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE
TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L 04/19 low  
Reversal Bar      
NYMO Sell     *Stopped out short position with loss.
Non-Stop      
OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT - *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP   *4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX overbought and too high above MA(200).
*0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: Ascending Triangle breakout, target $51.48.
*ChiOsc a little too high.
IWM UP   *ChiOsc a little too high.
*4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Too high above MA(200).
CHINA ?    
EMERGING UP    
CANADA UP    
BOND DOWN   *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Breakout of a Bull Flag, so yield could up while bond will be down.
DOLLAR UP    
GOLD UP    
GDX UP    
OIL UP    
ENERGY UP   *4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Breakout!
FINANCIALS UP   *4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Too high above MA(200).
REITS UP    
MATERIALS UP    
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH'S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009

See chart below, interestingly, ever since the Aug 2009, mostly the last trading week of each month was a red week.

Week Seasonality Watch

Especially the last 2 trading days of each month. Still remember this setup?

MonthDay Seasonality Watch

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06

See 04/16 Market Recap for more details. Please don't read too much into cycle analysis, all I know is that the next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A NEW HIGH AHEAD BUT COULD BE A RED WEEK THE NEXT WEEK

Start with the good news first, 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator, the NYHGH (NYSE New 52 Week Highs) below reached a new high last Friday which means that SPX will have a new high ahead. See charts below for the past patterns, although the NYHGH very high reading may mean a red day the next day but a top could only be formed after NYHGH negative divergence. So in another word, even the market starts to pullback the next Monday (which by the way is unlikely if you remember the chart 6.5.2a Weekday Seasonality Watch) there'll be at least a rebound to a new high thereafter (so that NYHGH could have a chance to form a negative divergence).

Record NYHGH 2004

Record NYHGH 2007

Record NYHGH 2009

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), my guess is that Fib 61.8% at 1228 could be the new high since it's not far away now. However, see vertical red solid lines (PPO(1,40,1)), every time the SPX was too high above MA(200), the next week was a red week. So combining with the above mentioned seasonality factor - mostly every month's last trading week was a red week since Aug 2009, therefore chances are good that we might see a red week the next week.

SPX Weekly

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment